The Food Systems Approach: Sustainable Solutions for a Sufficient Supply of Healthy Food

3.1 Increasing the supply

In the next three decades the world's population will increase, rising to 9 billion in 2050, with the biggest growth occurring in areas that are already facing food insecurity. After several years of decline, the number of people suffering from chronic hunger is once again on the rise, reaching more than 800 million in 2016, or 11% of the current world population. Viewed in this light, the SDG 2 target (zero hunger in 2030) is very ambitious. 

The FAO estimates that in a business-as-usual scenario food production will have to increase by 50% in order to feed the growing world population in 2050. At the same time, the quantity of available agricultural land is declining through soil degradation, and resources such as water and energy are becoming increasingly scarce. The growth in yield per hectare has also declined in recent decades. The current growth in grain productivity is half of what is needed to achieve the required doubling of production. 

And yet a greater supply of food does not depend on productivity growth alone. At present a substantial proportion (about 30 to 40%) of the total amount of food that is produced is lost in the various steps of the value chain. Also, large areas of land suitable for agriculture are being used for the production of biofuels. By reducing waste and/or recycling minerals and food remains as animal feed or compost (circularity), or switching to alternative energy sources (other than biofuels), we could increase the food supply without having to put more land into production or to use land more intensively. In addition, animal production requires more energy, land, and water than plant production. A reduction in meat consumption would reduce the demand for animal feed, which would enable the increased production of plant food crops, thereby making more food available overall. Policy aimed at reducing loss, recycling food remains, or promoting plant consumption patterns can make a significant contribution to SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production).