Sustainable Energy and Smart Grids: Breakthrough in Thinking, Modelling, and Technology

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Book:	Sustainable Energy and Smart Grids: Breakthrough in Thinking, Modelling, and Technology

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Description

One of the greatest challenges modern society faces is the supply of sustainable energy. One fundamental issue is finding the right portfolio of energy sources that are environmentally safe and cost-effective. This case study discusses the challenges of electric energy systems and how to integrate sustainable energy resources and smart grid developments.

Introduction
The Challenge
Sustainable Energy Sources
Development of New Models
Conclusions

Introduction

By 2020, some European Union energy and climate policies will expire, so discussion of a post-2020 policy needs to be initiated. One of the fundamental issues is finding the right portfolio of energy sources which can provide the most environmentally-safe, cost-effective road map. In this chapter, we discuss the challenges of electric energy systems of the future with regard to the integration of sustainable energy resources and smart grid developments. In our view, such a system requires innovation in three related fields: development of smart grid technologies for generation of renewable and intermittent sources and storage devices, transmission and distribution controls, and the development of new models to understand the complexity of these types of systems.

The key factors are innovation, concept and the environment: planning and execution can lead to important breakthroughs.

Source: Martin Verkerk, Henk Polinder, and Paulo F. Ribeiro, https://archive.org/details/breakthrough-innovation-impact/page/n115/mode/2up
This work is in the Public Domain.

The Challenge

The supply of sustainable energy is one of the greatest challenges modern society faces. On the one hand traditional sources like oil, coal, and gas are limited and polluting, and contribute to the heating-up of the earth. On the other, nuclear energy remains disputed, because of safety concerns and the problem of radioactive waste (even if nuclear is sometimes termed, by China, "renewable"). Governments, universities and industries are cooperating intensively to develop sustainable energy sources that will meet future requirements.

Many sustainable sources, such as sun, wind and hydro energy, produce energy in the form of electricity. A great advantage of electric energy supply is that it can be transported easily over large distances. It is widely recognised that the development and integration of sustainable resources also requires innovation in the electrical grid and associated technologies for generation, transmission, distribution and energy storage systems. The present electrical system is based on a model of large and centralized electricity generators (large-scale plants based on fossil fuels) whereas the future electrical system will be based on a large amount of smaller, local generators (solar panels, wind turbines). Changes in renewable energy generation will induce big changes in the management and distribution of electrical energy because of their unpredictability. The present electrical system has to be made smarter in order to accommodate and balance supply and demand on the local, regional, national and transnational levels.

The International Energy Outlook 2013 reports that the world's net electricity generation could increase by 93 percent from 20.2 trillion kilowatt hours in 2010 to 39.0 trillion kilowatt hours in 2040. Electricity supplies an increasing share of the world's total energy demand and is the world's fastest-growing form of delivered energy. World electricity delivered to end users is projected to rise by 2.2 percent per year from 2010 to 2040, as compared with forecast average growth of 1.4 percent per year for all delivered energy sources. In general, projected growth in OECD countries is slower than in non-OECD countries, where at present many people do not have access to electricity.

Beginning in the early 2000s, high fossil fuel prices in combination with concerns about the environmental consequences of greenhouse gas emissions provoked interest in developing alternatives to fossil fuels. The long-term global prospects for generation from renewable energy sources continue to improve, making them the fastest-growing sources of electricity with forecast annual increases averaging 2.8 percent per year from 2010 to 2040 (see figure 1). In particular, non-hydropower renewable resources are predicted to be the fastest-growing sources of new generation in both OECD and non-OECD regions. Non-hydropower intermittent renewables, which accounted for 4 percent of the generation market in 2010, could increase their share of the market to 9 percent in 2040.

The successful integration of renewable energy sources and implementation of smart grid technologies will require a holistic analysis and design process. Grid project investments in Europe currently amount to more than €5 billion and are estimated to reach €56 billion by 2020. An evaluation by the European Commission of European smart grid projects showed that it is very difficult to grasp technological and non-technological key characteristics of this complex system: the difficulties encountered during the data collection process; the lack of quantitative data to perform analyses; the recognition of the higher complexity of the system and the lack of proper integration; the difficulties with the setting of business models; the lack of consumer involvement; the need for proper ICT infrastructure; the need for better data protection and security; and the need for a legislative framework to ensure proper division of responsibilities. The EC report high- lights that "a scan of the collected projects seems to suggest a lack of specific attention to the social implications of Smart Grids". In our view, a sustainable energy system needs innovation in three basic areas:

(a) development of sustainable energy sources;

(b) development of smart grids to accommodate production and consumption of energy under market signal incentives;

(c) development of models to understand the non-technological aspects of the production and consumption of energy, e.g. social and ethical questions. In addition, these non-technological aspects have to be integrated in the design of sustainable sources and smart grids.

In this chapter we will focus on the smart grid as an innovation. To understand the importance and the main characteristics of these grids we will give an overview of the most important sustainable energy sources. After that, we will discuss what is required with respect to the electrical infrastructure. Finally, we will examine theoretical models to understand the complexity of sustainable energy and electricity systems in general and smart grids in particular.

Sustainable Energy Sources

As renewable electricity generation increases, additional transmission infrastructure is required to deliver generation from cost-effective remote renewable resources to load centers, enable reserve sharing over greater distances, and smooth output profiles of variable resources by enabling greater geospatial diversity. NREL - Renewable Electricity Futures Study, 2013

	Energy Per Year (2012)	Average Power
Global energy consumption	158000 TWH	18 TW
Global electrical energy consumption	20148 TWH (13%)	2.3 TW

Figure 2. Estimates of global energy consumption and global electrical energy consumption in 2012

Figure 2 gives estimates of global energy consumption. This table shows that about 13 percent of total energy consumption is used in the form of electrical energy. This percentage will grow in the future, with the Internal Energy Out- look 2013 expecting that in the period 2010-2040 world energy consumption will grow 56 per cent whereas world electricity consumption will grow 93 per cent (EIA, 2013).

Figure 3 gives estimates of the most important sustainable energy sources. There are some other sustainable energy sources, such as energy from ocean currents, ocean waves and the salinity gradient between salt and sweet water. However, these sources are in such an early stage of development that they do not yet make a significant contribution. Most sources produce electrical energy (hydro, wind, solar) and other sources produce heated water (solar, geothermal) or fuels (biomass).

	Actual energy Production(2012)	Installed capacity (end 2012)
1. Non-intermittent renewable sources (NIRE)
HYDRO ENERGY	3500 TWH	800 GW
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY	67 TWH	11 GW
BIOMASS ENERGY	900 TWH
Total NIRE: 44467 TWH (22% of world electricity production)
2. Intermittent renewable sources (IRE)
WIND ENERGY	525 TWH	282 GW
SOLAR ENERGY	115 TWH	100 GW
OCEAN WAVE ENERGY	SMALL	SMALL
TOTAL IRE: 640 TWH (3% OF WORLD ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION)
3. Total renewable sources (NIRE+ IRE) 5107 TWH (25% of world electricity production, 3% of world energy production)

Figure 3. Estimates of the use of sustainable energy sources in 2012 (based on Wikipedia, IEA wind 2012 annual report). For comparison: the amount of electricity Generated by nuclear sources is 2620 TWH

Comparison of figures 2 and 3 shows that until now only 3 per cent of our energy consumption is produced in a sustainable way (sun and wind: 0.04 per cent). In other words, at the moment we are still far from being a society based on renewable energy.

Of course sustainable intermittent energy sources present an additional challenge, not least because there is a limited amount of electrical energy storage devices in the grid. The Sandia Report (2013) presents the most comprehensive analysis of the technologies, current and future applications, and uses of energy storage systems in electric grids. Through fast control techniques and technologies, production has to be equal to consumption (the power bal- ance has to be kept) in order to maintain the frequency and stability of the grid. In the current system, this balance is kept by automatic control systems mainly via thermal power stations, where the consumption of electrical energy is automatically balanced by the production of electrical energy by adapting the consumption of coal, oil or gas to demand (see figure 4). In possible future power systems, with fewer thermal power stations, this power balance must be kept via energy storage devices, because most of the sustainable energy sources (such as wind, solar, ocean wave, and tidal energy) have an intermittent nature. This means that they are not continuously available: if there is no wind, there is no wind energy. To keep the power balance in these grids without thermal power stations, it may be necessary to have forms of energy storage and to control the loads.

To understand the characteristics of the various forms of renewable energy we will discuss the most important sources in more detail. We will focus on hydro, wind and solar energy. We also will discuss one new source with a high potential: ocean wave energy.

Hydro Energy

Hydro energy or hydroelectricity is the production of electrical energy by using the gravitational force of falling or flowing water. The best-known form of hydroelectricity is the energy produced in turbines driven by the water from a reservoir behind a dam in a river. However, on a smaller scale, hydroelectricity can also be generated by putting turbines in a river with flowing water. Hydroelectricity is still the most widely used form of sustainable energy. The growth of this source is limited (to roughly 3 per cent per year), probably because of worries about the environmental impact of building dams in rivers and because the most attractive locations are already being used. However, in emerging economies like Africa and South America, a big increase in hydroelectricity is possible because many rivers have not yet been exploited.

The power from a flow of water can be expressed as

$P=Qgh$

where $Q$ is the mass flow (in kg/s) of the moving water, $g$ is the gravitational constant, and $h$ is the height difference between the water behind the dam and the location of the turbines. This shows that the growth of hydroelectricity is mainly profitable at locations with a large height difference and with a large mass flow of water. Among the attractive properties of hydroelectricity from a dam are the fact that hydroelectricity can be well-controlled and that the reservoir can be used to store energy. These reservoirs can also be used for pumped storage, using energy to pump water when more energy is available than is needed and using this energy when necessary. These properties make hydroelectricity a very suitable generation source for smart grids.

Wind Energy

Wind energy is the production of electrical energy by using the kinetic energy of moving air (wind). Nowadays, wind energy is mainly generated with three-bladed horizontal axis wind turbines. Wind energy is the third-largest source of sustainable electrical energy (after hydro energy and biomass). From 1980 to 2010, wind energy grew at roughly 30 per cent per year. Since 2010, growth has been lower because of the economic crisis, but its potential is still very large. In densely populated countries in Western Europe, there is a trend to place wind farms offshore. The power produced by a wind turbine can be expressed as

$P= \dfrac{1}{2} ρ_{air} C_ρ \pi r^2_r v^2_w$

where

$ρ$ is the mass density of air,

$Cρ$ is the aerodynamic efficiency,

$r_r$ is the rotor radius, and

$v_w$ is the wind speed. From this expression a few important conclusions can be drawn. The fact that the power is proportional to the cube of the wind speed has a number of important implications.

If there is no wind or the wind speed is low, the turbine produces no or little power. On average, a wind turbine operates at a capacity factor (average produced power divided by maximum power) in the order of 30 per cent offshore and 20 per cent onshore. And while it is mainly attractive to develop wind farms at locations with high wind speed, the very low spatial efficiency of wind farms requires huge areas covered by widely spaced wind turbines to avoid negative wake turbulence effects.

Thus to obtain significant electricity production hundreds of square kilometers are needed (example: London Array Installation on 100 km² for 600 MW, i.e. a very low ratio of 6 MW/Km²). This drawback is severely threatening the expansion of large ground wind farms in highly populated developed countries, especially in northern Europe (such as Germany and the Netherlands).

A less attractive property of wind energy is that there is hardly any energy storage. Some energy is stored in the rotating mass of the blades. That is enough to filter power pulsations with frequencies above around 1 Hz, but lower frequency power variations have to be compensated for in another way.

Solar Energy

Solar power is the production of electrical energy from solar radiation. The best-known form of solar energy is probably photovoltaics, the direct conversion of solar energy into electricity using solar cells. A less well-known and less used form of solar energy is concentrated solar power, where solar energy is concentrated to heat steam and drive a steam turbine. Solar energy is also used directly for heating. During the past decade, the growth of solar energy has been in the order of 50 per cent per year, which is larger than the growth of wind energy.

The potential for growth is enormous: the amount of solar energy reaching the earth is four times larger than the planet's total energy consumption. The production of solar energy varies with the day and night cycle and depends on the weather. The global formula to estimate the electricity generated by a solar panel is $E=A*r*H*PR$ , where $E$ is the generated energy (kWh), $A$ the total solar panel area ( $m^2)$ , r the solar panel yield (%), $H$ is the annual average solar radiation on tilted panels, and $PR$ is the performance ratio, where the coefficient for losses ranges between 0.5 and 0.9. This formula shows that the amount of energy produced by solar panels depends heavily on the sunshine at the location of the panels: the panels have the highest energy production in countries around the equator (see figure 5). Unlike large-scale hydroelectricity and wind energy, an important part of solar energy is produced with small-scale solar panels connected to the local distribution grid throughout the power system.

Figure 5. The three-year average of solar irradiance, including nights and cloud Coverage. Sunlight hitting the dark discs could power the whole world: if installed In areas marked by the six discs in the map, solar cells with a conversion efficiency of Only 8 per cent would produce, on average, 18 TW electrical power. That is more than The total power currently available from all our primary energy sources, including Coal, oil, gas, nuclear, and hydro.

Ocean Wave Energy

Ocean wave energy is the production of energy from ocean waves. In deep water, where the water depth is larger than half the wavelength, the power available in waves is given by

$P= \dfrac{ρg^2}{64 \pi} H^2_{m0} T_e$

with $P$ the wave energy flux per unit of wave-crest length, $H_{m0}$ the significant wave height, $T_e$ the wave energy period, $ρ$ the water density and $g$ the acceleration by gravity.

There are many different concepts for generating energy from ocean waves, such as floating buoys reacting against the sea bed, floating buoys reacting against each other, oscillating water columns, and overtopping devices. The technical challenges in this field are huge: the mechanical forces of waves during storms are extremely demanding, and the salty and humid environment is very aggressive to the (electrical) components. Ocean wave energy is still in a very early phase of development and is barely exploited commercially. However, the potential is very large. The variations in output power of this renewable energy source are larger than for other forms of renewable energy because of the irregularity of the waves.

Sustainable Energy and Smart Grids

The large-scale introduction of renewable sustainable intermittent and non- intermittent energy generation requires the development of new grid technologies. Most of the sustainable energy is produced and transported in electrical form. It is not necessarily produced where it is also consumed. This means that the transport capacity of the future grid must probably be much larger than it is now. Currently, variations in power consumption and in power generated from intermittent sustainable sources are instantaneously compensated by variations in generated power in conventional power stations. If conventional power stations are abolished in a sustainable system, it is necessary to adapt the load to the available power or to use large-scale energy storage. Therefore, the distribution grid has to be adapted to enable the large-scale use of small-scale solar power in a safe way and also considering the bi-directional flow of power on distribution circuits.

The Future of Sustainable Energy

High renewable electricity futures can result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use. Direct environmental and social implications are associated with the high renewable futures examined, including reduced electric sector air emissions and water use resulting from reduced fossil energy consumption, and increased land use competition and associated issues. NREL - Renewable Electricity Futures Study, 2013.

Changing to a sustainable intermittent or non-intermittent energy source is not a trivial matter. It has taken generations to build up the current energy system; it will probably also take decades to change to a completely renewable and sustainable power system. Figure 6 presents the vision that renewable energy sources are mainly harvested where they are available (hydro energy in mountainous regions, solar energy closer to the equator, wind energy more offshore) and that a smart super grid is used to connect everything.

Figure 6. Renewable Energy Sources and Super Grids in Europe and North Africa

Nature, Structure and Complexity of Smart Grids

In the last few years the steady growth of distributed generation and the expected higher penetration of renewable energy sources, together with policies on electricity distribution supporting the need for a "smarter grid", have begun to change the structure of the sector. It is within this context that the concept of smart grids has surfaced and certain significant technological developments are taking place.

In the near future, electric energy supply systems will change further. It is likely that large-scale power plants will be complemented by a large number of small-scale energy generation units. Among other suppliers, individual households will generate solar or wind energy. Intelligent systems will be used to communicate, control, protect and balance the supply and demand of energy more comprehensively. The whole system of central and local energy generation, transmission and distribution, enabling intelligent control and information systems, is called a smart grid. Smart grids will integrate micro grids (local systems) and super grids (high-voltage transmission and bulk generation systems).

Figure 7 illustrates the new concept of smart grids and the functional relationship among the different subsystems and technologies. The bulk generation, transmission and distribution to customers are directly and electrically connected and are themselves linked via communication systems with the Markets, Operations and Service Providers.

Figure 7. Concept of smart grids that involve integral sustainable energy sources (CHPis combined heat and power generation)

The ultimate goal is to create not just a smart grid but a smarter one. By applying technologies, tools and techniques currently available, as well as those under development, the goal is to make the grid work more efficiently by ensuring its reliability to degrees not possible before, while maintaining its affordability. It would reinforce global competitiveness, while accommodating renewable and traditional energy sources and potentially reducing our carbon footprint. But it requires introducing advancements and efficiencies that are yet to be envisioned.

The grid of the future, according to the US Department of Energy (LSC, 2010), needs to satisfy the requirements of being more reliable, more secure,more economical, more efficient, friendlier to the environment and safer. To realize this from an architectural perspective, the grid needs to have the following attributes: an evolved energy supply mix, enhancements of the trans- mission grid, the co-existence of many grid configurations and the activation of the end-user as producer. These can be realized by further advancements in enabling technologies and control methods.

In addition, the following aspects on the supply side, demand and systems design should be considered. On the supply side, there needs to be a higher penetration of renewable resources, improvements in energy storage and balancing and the integration of isolated 'islands' with renewable energy grids. On the demand side, utility control systems need to respond to local demand with aggregated local energy storage and the use of privately-owned energy storage, and to transport this energy efficiently. Managing supply and demand in these ways requires an architecture of complex autonomous adaptive systems with effective cyber security.

The architectural concepts depend on a number of new functionalities that will be supported by future technologies that include power electronics, communications and computer science disciplines. In their fields of research new and detailed definitions need to be developed for cyber security and systems engineering, as well as for enabling functions, such as communications networks, visualization and data management, and markets and economics. Performance will be monitored by new operations and control systems, as well as by planning, analysis and simulations.

Besides the physical components, the technological and computational concepts will involve a new distributed systems architecture, which connects the world of people, devices and systems. This requires new approaches in self-integrating systems, multi-agent systems, virtual computing architectures, and the messaging-oriented middle (software or hardware infrastructure for distributed systems).

The computational aspects will also involve the development of new computer applications to address smart grid areas. This includes control systems that respond to the market, tools that monitor and control as well as model and simulate. Such systems will carry out signal processing, protection, performance monitoring, state estimation, contingency analysis, stochastic analysis, and prognostics and asset management. Advancements in many areas of computer science are still needed to make smart grids a reality, including the information science for visualization, artificial intelligence, data analytics, high-performance computing, internet for real-time systems. Finally, these systems require high levels of cyber security technology to reduce damage from potential attacks, and to protect the integrity and privacy of information.

Conclusion

What will be the architecture of the future electric grid? We know that micro grids will minimize the demands on the transmission and bulk generation systems and manage production and consumption of local energy. We know that super grids have to be adjusted to meet the generation of sustainable energy at the distribution level. We also know that smart grids will connect micro grids and super grids to accommodate and balance demand and supply at the local, national and supranational level. Finally, we have a much more complex set of requirements that have to be met by all agents and sub-systems in order to operate the electric grid of the future in a stable and sustainable way.

Despite all this know-how, the best answer to the question "What will be the architecture of the future?" is: nobody knows which is the best model or framework. Another more probable and adequate answer to this question will be: the architecture of the electrical system of the future will not be designed at once but will evolve over many years from today's infrastructure through the deployment and integration of intelligent systems, through the development and implementation of new devices and components, and through political decisions and actions.

It may be that the key decision parameter in the development of smart grids is the perception of the climate risk. A global awareness of the threat of increasing CO₂ in the atmosphere could facilitate the development of renew- able sources and the enormous possibilities of energy saving. If so, smart grids should be adapted to the new habits of the population.

Development of New Models

Experience with the dynamic operation of large and time-varying sustainable energy systems is limited, so the need for a theoretical framework is significant. Research institutions and companies have developed detailed and comprehensive frameworks for the research and development of complex electrical systems.

Model of the Technical University of Eindhoven

Figure 8 (TUE, 2012) illustrates the structure of the electrical engineering programme at the Technical University of Eindhoven. The diagram shows three levels of complexity: society and politics, multidisciplinary business platforms, and multidisciplinary technical research.

Figure 8. Fan example of a university framework to address engineering research and Development

At first sight, this model seems to be quite complete. It involves technology (first layer), business models (second layer) and society (third layer). However, on further inspection the model shows a lot of shortcomings. Let's first focus on the technological layer. It shows a lot of different electrical systems that focus on the micro grids (local system), smart grids (regional systems) and super grids (international systems). However, this layer does not include any traditional or sustainable energy sources. The model seems to express the idea that these sources are unproblematic and do not have to be taken into account. In addition, it presents a view of technology from within. The view of engineers on technology and the view of society on technology are not highlighted.

Business models come in on the second layer, which describes the technological aspects of business platforms. The model suggests that for an engineer only the technological aspects have to be taken into account and that the business aspects can be ignored. But every technological product has to serve customers and has its price. The model does not invite engineers to think about these elements.

In the third layer society is addressed. It specifies a connecting world, care and cure, and the idea of a smart and sustainable sector. In the first place, the explicit attention for these societal sectors ought to be welcomed. The ideas of a connecting, healthy and sustainable society are key to guiding the development of a technological society. However, the model is both too abstract and too general to consider many of the complexities of an electric grid design and operation. It covers general ideas but does not give the engineer enough information to identify which parties are relevant and what interests are justified. It does not address the fact that society consists of quite different actors who have different interests. In addition, it does not address different dimensions of sustainable energy and smart grids, or social, legal and ethical considerations.

In conclusion, the model presented in figure 8 accurately reflects the technical and systemic world of the engineer and needs further development to fully account for the complexity and normativity of sustainable energy and smart grids. In other words, this model shows engineers working with reduced models in which they address a reduced reality.

Model of the European Commission

Figure 9 presents the model developed by the Reference Architecture Working Group of the European Commission. This model spans three dimensions: domains, zones and interoperability layers. The domains cover the complete energy conversion chain from energy generation to the end users. The zones represent the hierarchical levels of the power system management. The interoperability layers highlight the interoperability between components and systems. In this simplified model five different layers are distinguished. The advantage of this model is that it urges engineers to take into account the whole energy conversion chain, the whole power system and the relationship with business models. This model has a technological and economical spirit.

Figure 9. The model developed by the reference architecture working group of the European commission

Triple I model

A quite different model has been given by Ribeiro et al., shown in figure 10. This model states that designers have to use three different perspectives to specify new technologies: integrality, inclusiveness and idealism. The idea of integrality refers to the different aspects that have to be taken into account; the idea of inclusiveness to the different stakeholders whose interests are at issue; and the idea of idealism to the ideals, value systems, or basic beliefs that underpin the development of smart grids. This model is based on the ontology as developed by the philosopher Dooyeweerd and the practice model developed by the philosophers Hoogland, Jochemsen, Glas, Verkerk and others.

Figure 10. Societal plurality (triple 1 model). Model developed by Ribeiro et al.

The first 'I' refers to the different aspects that have to be analyzed. In total fifteen different aspects are identified, varying from the numerical, physical, social, economic and juridical to the moral dimension (see figure 11). Each aspect has its own nature, dynamics and normativity. Consequently, these different aspects cannot be regarded in isolation but every aspect has to be analyzed in detail.

ASPECTS	ELECTRIC GRID	SMART GRID
ARITHMETIC	NUMBERS	MEASURABLE QUANTITIES: VOLTAGE, CURRENT AND POWER
SPATIAL	USE OF SPACE	TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION NETWORK
KINEMATIC	USE OF SPACE	ROTATING GENERATORS, ENERGY FLOW
PHYSICAL	MATERIALS AND PROPERTIES	CABLES, TRANSFORMERS, GENERATORS
BIOTIC	INFLUENCE ON ANIMALS, HUMAN BODIES, ENVIRONMENT	INFLUENCE OF ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS AND WAVES ON LIFE
PSYCHIC	FEELINGS OF SAFETY	INTERMITTENT RENEWABLE SOURCES LEAD TO FEELINGS OF UNCERTAINTY
ANALYTICAL	DISTINCTION BETWEEN DIFFERENT TYPES OF GRIDS	DIFFERENT TYPES OF GRIDS: MICRO, NATIONAL, SUPER, SMART
FORMATIVE	CONTROL	CONTROL OF POWER GENERATION, DISTRIBUTION AND CONSUMPTION, SMART METERS
LINGUISTIC	MEANING OF TERMINOLOGY	TERM "SMART" CHOSEN TO PROMOTE TECHNOLOGY? SHOULD IT BE "SMARTER"?
SOCIAL	INFLUENCE ON HUMAN BEHAVIOR	LEADS TO MORE SUSTAINABLE HUMAN BEHAVIOR?
ECONOMIC	COPE WITH SCARCITY OF ENERGY AND HIGHER DEMAND	PRICE DIFFERENTIATION DEPENDING ON MOMENTARY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
AESTHETIC	AESTHETICS OF BUILDINGS & SYSTEM	BEAUTIFUL V2G CONNECTION POINTS?
JURIDICAL	LIABILITY, OWNERSHIP OF NETWORKS	WHO IS LIABLE FOR A FAILING SMART GRID?
MORAL	CARE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, HUMANS AND ANIMALS	HOW DO SMART GRIDS HELP IN CARING FOR HUMANS?
BELIEF	TRUST IN SYSTEMS	SOME PEOPLE TRUST THAT SMART GRIDS WILL IMPROVE LIFE

Figure 11. Overview of the different aspects of systems design for smart grids

Different aspects or dimensions

The second 'I' refers to the different stakeholders and their justified inter- ests. Based on a philosophical analysis Ribeiro et al. argue that the interests of stakeholders are different. For example, this comes to the fore when we analyze how different stakeholders will cope with a widespread blackout of the electrical system. Industrial enterprises will balance the risks, potential losses and prevention costs on economic grounds, hospitals will always choose back-up installations to prevent harming patients, and citizens will accept the risks as long as their normal life is not unduly hampered. So, "inclusiveness" requires the analysis of the interests of all the stakeholders. In this analysis the lists of interests will be very helpful.

The third 'I' refers to the ideals, values and basic beliefs that underpin the search for sustainable sources and the design of the energy system of the future. It has to be noted that in Western culture different value systems are present. Some people believe that economic considerations have to be dominant (the neoliberal approach), others believe that the present system can be adapted to meet environmental and sustainability requirements ("shallow ecology"), while others state that we not only need technological innovations but also radical societal reforms ("deep ecology"). It is important to make this third 'I' explicit in order to discuss the "why" of sustainable energy and smart grids and to prevent these fundamental questions being suppressed by technological and economical perspectives.

The approach of Ribeiro et al. is summarized in figure 12. It shows that for every (sub-) technology an extensive analysis of the three I's is required. On the one hand, it is a tough job to do this kind of analysis, especially because engineers will run into many "we don't knows" that will urge them to do additional research. On the other hand, failures in this field are so costly that no organization or institution can permit them.

Figure 12. Overview of the approach of Ribeiro et al.

Comparison of models

The model of the TUE – as concluded above – faces a lot of shortages and is dominated by the technological perspective. The model of the European Commission supports engineers to think over the whole energy conversion chain, hierarchy of power systems and relation with business models. This model is dominated by a technological and economical spirit. The Triple I model is quite different because it highlights technological and non-technological aspects, the different interests of various stakeholders and the ideals or values that underpin the design of the electrical system of the future. We conclude that a combination of the model of the European Commission and the Triple I model will be most fruitful.

Conclusions

The development of a sustainable energy system requires innovation in three basic areas; in sustainable energy sources; in smart grids to integrate production and consumption; and in the development of models to understand the non-technological aspects of the production and consumption. This includes the markets, but also an understanding of the social and ethical questions. These non-technological aspects have to be integrated in the design of sustainable sources and smart grids. The development of sustainable energy sources is under way. The most important contribution to sustainable energy will be from hydro, biomass, wind and solar energy. We suggest that renewable energy sources are mainly harvested where they are available (hydro energy in mountainous regions, solar energy closer to the equator, wind energy more offshore).

The development of sustainable energy sources will radically change the electrical infrastructure of the future. Micro grids will be necessary to mini- mise the demands on the transmission and bulk generation systems and to manage production, transmission, distribution, storage, and consumption of local energy. Super grids are required to meet the generation of sustainable energy at a global level. Additionally, smart grids will connect micro grids and super grids to accommodate and balance demand and supply at local, national and supranational level. Despite all this know-how, the question "What will be the architecture of the future?" cannot yet be answered.

The most probable and adequate answer to this question will be: the architecture of the electrical system of the future will not be designed at once but will evolve over many years from today’s infrastructure through the deployment and integration of intelligent systems, through the development and implementation of new devices and components, and through political decisions and actions.

The electrical infrastructure of the future will be very complex, so an adequate model to understand this complexity and its normative aspects is of the utmost importance. We conclude that a combination of two models is required to integrate technical, societal and ethical considerations: the European Commission model and the Triple I model. The European Commission model supports engineers to think over the whole energy conversion chain, hierarchy of power systems and relation with business models. The Triple I model developed by Ribeiro et al. highlights non-technological aspects, the different interests of various stakeholders and the ideals or values that underpin the design of innovations.

Innovations in the field of renewable energy sources are driven by ideas about a sustainable future. This chapter shows that the production of electricity from renewable sources will grow considerably. However, the growth in total global energy consumption exceeds the growth in production by renewable sources. As a consequence, the use of traditional sources like oil, coal and gas and disputed sources like nuclear energy will still grow in the coming decades. In other words, the idea of a sustainable future is still utopian and so more radical choices will have to be made to meet the requirements of the future.

Innovations in the field of smart grids are also driven by ideas about a sustainable future. New technologies are being defined and standards agreed. Despite all these efforts there is not yet such a thing as a smart grid. The smart grid is an innovation that will be shaped by the efforts of many actors like engineers, energy generation enterprises, energy distribution enterprises, technology firms, governments and consumers. Only in a couple of decades from now will we know what smart grids really are.