BUS606: Operations and Supply Chain Management

The main objectives of this paper are to assess the long-term and short-term production based on both reservoir parameters and completion parameters of shale gas reservoirs. The effects of the reservoir parameters (permeability and the initial reservoir pressure) and completion parameters (fracture geometry, stimulated reservoir volume, etc.) on the short-term and long-term production of shale gas reservoirs were investigated. The currently used approach relies mainly on the decline curve analysis or analogs from a similar shale play to forecast the gas production from shale gas reservoirs. Both these approaches are not satisfactory because they are calibrated on short production history and do not assess the impact of uncertainty in reservoir and well data. For the first time, this study integrates initial production analysis, probabilistic evaluation, and sensitivity analysis to develop a robust workflow that will help in designing a sustainable production from shale gas plays. The reservoir and completion parameters were collected from different available resources, and the probability distributions of gathered uncertain data were defined. Then analytical models were used to forecast the production. Two well evaluation results are presented in this paper. Based on the results, completion parameters affected the short-term and long-term production, while the reservoir parameters controlled the long-term production. Long-term well performance was mainly controlled by the fracture half-length and fracture height, whereas other completion and reservoir parameters have an insignificant effect. Stimulation treatment design defines the initial well performance, while well placement decision defines well long-term performance. The findings of this study would help in better understanding the production performance of shale gas reservoirs, maximizing production by selecting effective completion parameters, and considering the governing reservoir parameters. Moreover, it would help in accomplishing more effective stimulation treatments and define the potentiality of the basin.

Source: Mohamed Mahmoud, Ahmed Aleid, Abdulwahab Ali, and Muhammad Shahzad Kamal, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13202-019-00829-9#rightslink
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