Identifying and Assessing the Risks in the Supply Chain

Read this article. Based on the authors' research, risks related to procurement and suppliers are identified. Focus on Table 1, the hierarchical structure of supply chain risks in 3 levels, and Table 2, risk evaluation criteria.

8. Case Study

Tables

Table 4. Calculation Primary indicators of risk

 

P

I1

I2

I3

I4

PIR

 

P

I1

I2

I3

I4

PIR

R1

0.883

7.667

9.000

3.000

1.000

6.090  

R18

0.050

2.333

3.500

0.500

0.000

0.115

R2

0.133

8.667

7.833

1.833

0.833

0.882 

R19

0.400

2.333

5.000

0.833

0.167

1.186

R3

0.967

8.167

10.000

7.667

4.333

8.182

R20

0.500

1.167

7.000

1.167

0.167

1.688

R4

0.700

3.000

9.000

8.500

2.333

4.278

R21

0.367

0.833

8.500

1.833

1.500

1.491

R5

0.233

1.667

4.667

0.333

0.667

0.598

R22

0.083

1.500

7.000

1.000

1.500

0.300

R6

0.017

8.500

6.667

9.333

0.500

0.120

R23

0.017

2.000

7.667

0.500

5.667

0.073

R7

0.933

8.500

9.333

7.667

4.667

7.796

R24

0.017

2.000

9.000

0.500

5.667

0.081

R8

0.933

6.667

9.167

4.667

8.000

6.982

R25

0.400

5.000

4.333

4.667

1.333

1.740

R9

0.900

7.667

8.167

9.000

1.333

6.730

R26

0.400

5.333

9.000

0.667

0.833

2.272

R10

0.633

7.000

7.833

7.333

1.500

4.352

R27

0.233

0.500

1.333

0.333

0.333

0.184

R11

0.667

6.333

8.000

7.000

1.333

4.419

R28

0.567

7.667

7.000

3.667

2.000

3.568

R12

0.767

9.000

8.333

6.333

1.167

5.846

R29

0.700

9.667

5.667

6.667

1.000

4.797

R13

0.850

6.000

8.000

4.333

1.833

5.237

R30

0.367

6.667

7.333

1.833

5.333

2.236

R14

0.733

5.667

5.000

2.667

1.000

3.325

R31

0.700

5.000

10.00

1.333

0.500

4.214

R15

0.233

2.333

6.333

9.667

0.500

1.124

R32

0.400

4.667

7.667

5.667

4.667

2.399

R16

0.400

7.667

7.667

5.667

3.000

2.778

R33

0.883

2.333

7.667

1.000

5.667

4.016

R17

0.150

3.000

6.333

5.000

1.167

0.666

R34

0.700

2.333

7.000

3.667

4.333

3.187


Table 5. Decision Matrix

 

PIR

SIR1

SIR2

SIR3

SIR4

SIR5

SIR6

SIR7

SIR8

SIR9

 

PIR

SIR1

SIR2

SIR3

SIR4

SIR5

SIR6

SIR7

SIR8

SIR9

R1

6.09

8.50

6.67

1.50

8.67

5.00

0.67

8.33

7.67

0.83

R18

0.12

8.33

2.67

1.00

1.33

1.33

5.67

5.67

7.67

5.67

R2

0.88

9.50

9.50

1.00

0.00

0.50

7.33

9.33

9.67

5.33

R19

1.19

4.33

7.33

1.33

3.67

0.67

1.67

6.67

3.00

4.00

R3

8.18

9.33

9.50

0.67

9.83

9.33

0.00

8.00

8.83

0.83

R20

1.69

7.67

5.33

1.33

2.67

5.33

3.67

7.00

8.33

4.33

R4

4.28

4.67

5.00

6.67

5.00

9.00

8.17

9.33

8.33

3.00

R21

1.49

9.00

1.00

0.67

3.67

5.67

4.67

6.00

7.33

2.67

R5

0.60

3.33

1.00

1.00

2.33

2.33

9.17

9.50

9.33

8.50|

R22

0.30

8.33

1.33

0.00

5.33

5.33

3.33

8.00

3.67

8.33

R6

0.12

10.00

0.83

1.00

2.33

0.50

8.50

9.67

9.00

5.00

R23

0.07

4.67

0.33

0.67

0.50

1.50

9.50

8.00

9.67

8.67

R7

7.80

8.83

6.00

1.17

8.83

9.50

4.00

3.33

0.67

5.33

R24

0.08

9.33

0.33

0.17

0.50

0.50

9.50

8.00

9.67

6.33

R8

6.98

5.00

9.50

1.00

8.83

9.00

7.00

4.00

1.83

4.00

R25

1.74

7.00

0.17

4.00

7.67

7.33

7.67

9.00

5.67

8.33

R9

6.73

6.67

6.00

4.33

9.17

8.83

5.33

5.67

3.33

6.33

R26

2.27

3.67

0.50

0.67

6.33

7.00

7.00

3.67

8.33

7.00

R1O

4.35

4.33

1.00

0.33

5.33

4.67

7.33

4.33

1.17

5.67

R27

0.18

8.00

0.17

0.33

6.00

1.00

6.00

9.00

8.00

9.50

R11

4.42

9.00

3.00

7.67

6.00

5.33

8.33

8.33

9.17

8.33

R28

3.57

8.17

0.33

2.00

1.00

2.67

8.00

7.00

8.00

7.33

R12

5.85

8.00

5.33

6.33

7.67

7.67

5.67

7.67

9.17

7.67

R29

4.80

6.00

1.67

3.67

7.33

9.17

5.33

7.67

8.33

6.00

R13

5.24

7.33

6.67

4.00

7.33

7.67

5.33

8.33

7.67

7.00

R30

2.24

8.83

4.67

5.33

6.67

9.00

4.67

7.33

3.67

6.67

R14

3.33

5.33

7.33

2.00

5.00

6.33

4.33

7.33

8.67

4.00

R31

4.21

4.00

4.33

5.00

7.33

9.00

5.67

4.00

5.00

2.67

R15

1.12

6.67

1.67

6.33

8.17

2.33

7.67

6.67

8.17

5.00

R32

2.40

6.67

7.00

6.33

5.00

6.33

7.00

6.67

8.50

7.00

R16

2.78

5.67

3.33

1.50

6.33

6.33

1.50

8.50

8.00

8.50

R33

4.02

6.67

6.67

6.00

8.50

8.83

6.00

4.67

9.67

6.00

R17

0.67

1.50

4.33

1.50

2.33

1.50

4.33

7.00

8.83

8.50

R34

3.19

4.00

6.67

1.50

7.67

7.00

4.67

3.33

9.50

6.67


Table 6. Calculate the total weight of each indicator by combining Opinions of the experts and Shannon Entropy

 

PIR

SIR1

SIR2

SIR3

SIR4

SIR5

SIR6

SIR7

SIR8

SIR9

Ej

0.9357

0.9841

0.9103

0.8917

0.9512

0.9418

0.9681

0.989

0.9752

0.9766

dj

0.0643

0.0159

0.0897

0.1083

0.0488

0.0582

0.0319

0.011

0.0248

0.0234

W'j

0.1187

0.0822

0.0548

0.0731

0.0457

0.0799

0.0868

0.0639

0.0708

0.0753

Wj

0.1622

0.0278

0.1045

0.1682

0.0473

0.0988

0.0589

0.015

0.0373

0.0375

 

Table 7. Determining the ranking of risk for each of the indicators

Rank

PIR

SIR1

SIR2

SIR3

SIR4

SIR5

SIR6

SIR7

SIR8

SIR9

Rank

PIR

SIR1

SIR2

SIR3

SIR4

SIR5

SIR6

SIR7

SIR8

SIR9

1

R3

R17

R2

R11

R3

R7

R3

R7

R7

R1

18

R32

R25

RSI

R34

R27

R21

R31

R30

R4

R9

2

R7

R5

R3

R4

R9

R3

R1

R34

RIO

R3

19

R26

R13

R16

R19

RIO

R11

R27

R12

R20

R24

3

R8

R26

R8

R12

R7

R29

R16

R26

R8

R21

20

R30

R20

R11

R20

R22

R20

R33

R29

R26

R30

4

R9

R31

R14

R15

R8

R4

R19

R8

R19

R31

21

R25

R12

R18

R7

R4

R22

R8

R3

R29

R34

5

R1

R34

R19

R32

R1

R8

R22

R31

R9

R4

22

R20

R27

R15

R2

R14

R1

R26

R22

R32

R13

6

R12

RIO

R32

R33

R33

R30

R20

RIO

R22

R8

23

R21

R28

R29

R5

R32

RIO

R32

R23

R14

R26

7

R13

R19

R1

R30

R15

R31

R7

R33

R30

R14

24

R19

R18

R22

R6

R19

R28

R2

R24

R3

R32

8

R29

R4

R13

R31

R12

R9

R14

R9

R31

R19

25

R15

R22

R5

R8

R21

R5

RIO

R1

R17

R28

9

R11

R23

R33

R9

R25

R33

R17

R18

R25

R20

26

R2

RI

RIO

R18

R20

R15

R15

R11

R6

R12

10

RI0

R8

R34

R13

R34

R12

R21

R21

R21

R6

27

R17

R7

R21

R3

R5

R17

R25

R13

R11

R11

11

R4

R14

R7

R25

R13

R13

R30

R15

R1

R15

28

R5

R30

R6

R21

R6

R23

R28

R16

R12

R22

12

R3I

R16

R9

R29

R29

R25

R34

R19

R13

R2

29

R22

R11

R26

R23

R17

R18

R4

R25

R5

R25

13

R33

R29

R12

R14

R31

R26

R9

R32

R18

R7

30

R27

R21

R23

R26

R18

R27

R11

R27

R34

R5

14

R28

R9

R20

R28

R30

R34

R13

R17

R16

RIO

31

R6

R3

R24

RIO

R28

R19

R6

R2

R2

R16

15

R14

R15

R4

R1

R16

R14

R29

R20

R27

R18

32

R18

R24

R29

R20

R27

R23

R18

R4

R23

R17

16

R34

R32

R30

R16

R26

R16

R12

R28

R28

R29

33

R24

R2

R25

R24

R24

R6

R23

R5

R24

R23

17

R16

R33

R17

R17

R11

R32

R18

R14

R15

R33

34

R23

R6

R27

R22

R2

R24

R24

R6

R33

R27

 

Table 8. Part of the allocation matrix

 

Rank 1

Rank 2

Rank 3

Rank 4

Rank 5

Rank 6

Rank 7

Rank 8

Rank 9

Rank 10

Rank 11

Rank 12

Rank 13

Rank 14

Rank 15

R1

0.10

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.22

0.00

0.07

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.10

R2

0.07

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

R3

0.33

0.28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R4

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.11

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.07

R5

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R6

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R7

0.29

0.16

0.06

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.00

R8

0.00

0.00

0.33

0.15

0.11

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R9

0.00

0.06

0.00

0.16

0.09

0.00

0.00

0.19

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.12

0.11

0.00

R10

0.00

0.09

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.19

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.00

R11

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R12

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.00

0.06

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.00

0.00

R13

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.07

0.00

0.10

0.17

0.09

0.00

0.12

0.00

R14

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.26

R15

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.06

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.19

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.11

R16

0.00

0.00

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.09

0.06

R17

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.00

R18

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.00

0.10

R19

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.21

0.07

0.00

0.11

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.00

0.00

0.00

R20

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.09

R21

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.29

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R22

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.12

0.09

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R23

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R24

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

R25

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.00

0.10

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.00

R26

0.00

0.00

0.19

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

R27

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

R28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.26

0.00

R29

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.11

0.00

0.12

R30

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.19

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.06

0.00

R31

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.21

0.09

0.00

0.11

0.19

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.06

0.00

0.00

R32

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.07

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.00

0.00

R33

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.09

0.00

0.18

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.00

0.00

R34

0.00

0.09

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.13

0.00

0.12

0.00

0.11

0.00

 

Table 9. Ranking of different risks

Risk

Rank

Risk

Rank

Risk

Rank

Risk

Rank

R1

7

RIO

17

R19

19

R28

25

R2

28

Rll

12

R20

23

R29

11

R3

2

R12

6

R21

24

R30

13

R4

8

R13

10

R22

27

R31

5

R5

30

R14

14

R23

32

R32

16

R6

33

R15

20

R24

34

R33

9

R7

3

R16

18

R25

21

R34

15

R8

4

R17

26

R26

22

 

 

R9

1

R18

29

R27

31

 

 


Finally, in order to rank the risks of first level (seven risk categories), it can mean less risk ranking category, ranking each study. (Table 10)As observed in the process of securing and providing the lowest risk ranking and win in the study were identified as the most critical risks.Therefore, the company should control the response and reaction of these risks and their management

Table 10. Ranking of seven main risk categories according to the following ranking categories

Risk category

External risks

Risks related to procurement and supplier

Risks                     related to the supply of products

Risks related to production process

Risks related to information systems

Risks related                     to the support

Organizational risks

Subsidiaries

R1 to R6

R7 to R10

R11 to R17

R18 to R22

R23 to R28

R29 to R31

R30 to R34

Ranking average

18

6.3

15.1

24.4

27.5

9.7

13.3