Use Discounted Cash Flow Models to Make Capital Investment Decisions

Consider that companies will invest in projects that will generate more revenue for the business. This revenue is represented by a stream of future cash flows from the project. We introduced this topic in 3.3: Net Present Value, but it is worth reviewing the idea of future cash flows. When you have studied this section, you will be able to explain how a future stream of cash flows can be appropriately discounted to determine what the value is today.

Final Summary of the Discounted Cash Flow Models

The internal rate of return (IRR) and the net present value (NPV) methods are types of discounted cash flow analysis that require taking estimated future payments from a project and discounting them into present values. The difference between the two methods is that the NPV calculation determines the project's estimated return in dollars and the IRR provides the percentage rate of return from a project needed to break even.

When the NPV is determined to be $0, the present value of the cash inflows and the present value of the cash outflows are equal. For example, assume that the present value of the cash inflows is $10,000 and the present value of the cash outflows is also $10,000. In this example, the NPV would be $0. At a net present value of zero, the IRR would be exactly equal to the interest rate that was used to perform the NPV calculation. For example, in the previous example, where both the cash inflows and the cash outflows have present values of $10,000 and the NPV is $0, assume that they were discounted at an 8% interest rate. If you were to then calculate the internal rate of return, the IRR would be 8%, the same interest rate that gave us an NPV of $0.

Overall, it is important to understand that a company must consider the time value of money when making capital investment decisions. Knowing the present value of a future cash flow enables a company to better select between alternatives. The net present value compares the initial investment cost to the present value of future cash flows and requires a positive outcome before investment. The internal rate of return also considers the present value of future cash flows but considers profitability stated in terms of percentage of return on the investment or project. These models allow two or more options to be compared to eliminate bias with raw financial figures.


Thinking it Through

Choosing Investments

Companies are presented with viable alternatives that sometimes produce nearly identical results and profitability goals. If they have the ability to invest in both alternatives, they may do so. But what about when resources are constrained? How do they choose which investment is best for their company?

Consider this: you have two projects that meet the payback period and accounting rate of return screenings identically. Project 1 produced an NPV of $45,000 and had an IRR between 5% and 8%. Project 2 produced a NPV of $35,000 and had an IRR of 10%. This leaves you with a difficult choice, since each alternative has a measurement that exceeds the other and the other variables are the same. Which project would you invest in and why?