Driven by Nature: The Future of the Arctic

Because of climate change, the Arctic is transitioning to an ice-free future that will open new trade routes and exploit the polar region's vast natural resources amid the receding ice pack. Russia, Norway, Denmark, Canada, the United States, and international organizations are all vying to access these resources. Read the qualitative analysis in this chapter to explore the complexities of international treaties that govern the Arctic and the prospects of innovative multilateral agreements.

How does the changing landscape create a need for political and environmental balance? What are some new opportunities for businesses, economies, and human development?

Conclusion

The International And National Visions

The most decisive human responses to macro-level environmental change are the international declarations that have expressed a large-scale vision. The international visions expressed in the Ottawa Declaration, Ilulissat Declaration, and Kiruna Vision for the Arctic affirmed a number of key principles that are reflected in all national policies and strategies.

The Ilulissat Declaration is an expression of an international legal vision, which pointed to an existing international concept that declared the law of the sea the 'constitution' for the Arctic region. No new treaties were needed, and the innovation of this brilliant and simple declaration was not to innovate, but to settle the most important questions of international law and legitimacy at a stroke. This opened the door to moving forward on all other dealings in the region. At the international legal level, we therefore had a clear progression from vision to overall legal concept.

With the vision of the Ottawa Declaration, which established the Arctic Council in 1996, we similarly see a transition from vision to a concept of cooperation on a range of issues in development, scientific research, and environmental protection. The Council has also succeeded in developing two binding safety agreements for search-and-rescue and oil-spill prevention.

These two visions do not, however, form a basis for comprehensive concepts of a regional governance structure or regional security architecture. The law of the sea is limited to the sea, and the Arctic Council explicitly excludes matters of military security and cannot host its own military staff committee. These international visions can therefore not be translated to comprehensive concepts and strategies at the international level. Governance and security matters have therefore been devolved to the national level, which is largely positive but also fragmentary.

The ad-hoc 'Arctic ChoDs' round table was created out of the necessity to develop the capabilities and cooperation needed to meet the obligations of the Arctic Council's safety agreements. In that respect, this dialogue is also a breakthrough that is forcing innovation to develop integrated and allied mechanisms and strategies. The shared recognition that no nation can handle the responsibilities and challenges alone is driving cooperation, and this too is an important breakthrough. Nonetheless, without a solid institutional basis, it will not be possible for international visions to develop into genuine concepts and a strategy for regional governance and security.

The national levels that we discussed at length are separately moving parts that differ in emphasis and strategic priority. Among all the participants, we can see the process flow of international visions into national policy concepts and strategies. The international visions are therefore the most decisive of the process elements at all levels. At the national level, the international visions mixed with domestic priorities to create a diverse set of concepts – some of which are more comprehensive than others.  

But if we want to see an international vision for governance and security of the Arctic translated into genuine international concepts and strategies, then leadership and innovation at the highest level will be needed.