Forecasting Approaches
Methodology
Study Area Description
Situated between 27° 30' N latitude and 90°30' E longitude and measuring approximately 38,394 km2 [NSB], Bhutan is a Himalayan kingdom straddled between India and China, as shown in Figure 1. This tiny nation has 5369 plant species, 129 mammal species, 736 bird species, 125 fishes, 158 amphibian and reptile species, and 3966 invertebrate species (including 3511 insect species) [NBC], all of which signify its importance in global and regional biodiversity conservation.
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Figure 1. Study area (Bhutan) and forest fire inventories (record of forest fire incidences, shown in red dots from 2013 to 2015).
Geomorphologically, Bhutan is a highly mountainous country with approximately 95% of the total land situated 600 m above sea level (a.s.l), with landforms gradually rising from 97 m a.s.l. in the southern foothills to 7750 m a.s.l. in the northern snow-capped peaks [MoAF]. The vegetation cover changes with elevation, with sub-tropical broadleaved forest occupying elevations below 1200 m a.s.l. and temperate cool broadleaved forests occupying elevations between 1200 and 2000 m a.s.l. Pine forests (with pure stands of blue pine Pinus wallichiana and sometimes mixed with oaks and rhododendron) are found between 1500 and 3200 m a.s.l., while mixed coniferous forests with stands of fir Abies densa, hemlock Tsuga dumosa, spruce Picea spinulosa, larch Larix griffithii, and juniper Juniperus indica occur between 2500 and 3500 m a.s.l. Pure stands of chirpine Pinus roxburghii are found in dry valleys between elevations of 1520 to 1860 m a.s.l. At higher elevations, sub-alpine forests (3300 to 3800 m a.s.l.) and alpine meadows (3800 to 4800 m a.s.l.) predominate. Areas above 4800 m a.s.l. are featured by alpine rocky outcrops, and those beyond 6000 m a.s.l. are permanently covered in snow. The country has four seasons: spring (February to April), summer (May to July), autumn (August to October), and winter (November to January). Precipitation is mainly attributed to the summer monsoon which lasts from mid-April to mid-September. In terms of demography, Bhutan has a population of 733,003 people [NSB], which is probably the lowest in Asia.