Forecasting Approaches

Accuracies of Model Outputs

While assessing the efficiency of each method using AUC, the AHP model produced a 70.61% success rate and a 62.46% prediction rate, whereas the FR model produced 87% success rate and 82% prediction rate as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6. Comparison of the Area Under Curve (AUC) curves for assessing the predictive accuracies of (a) AHP and (b) FR modeling of forest fire-prone areas in Bhutan.