Forecasting Approaches

Validation of MODIS Fire Points

Upon overlay of 2769 MODIS fire points on the forest fire-prone maps, only 353 points (13%) overlapped with 'very high' and 340 points (12%) with 'high' classes on the fire-prone map yielded by the AHP model, as shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8. Similarly, only 260 points (9%) occurred on 'very high' and 346 points (13%) on 'high' classes of the FR-based fire-prone map. On the contrary, the highest number of MODIS points overlapped with 'moderate' class (n = 981; 35%) on the AHP-based map and 'low' class (n = 861; 31%) on the FR-based map.

Figure 7. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire points (red dots) overlaid with final forest fire-prone areas maps in Bhutan.

Figure 8. Comparison of MODIS fire points overlaid with AHP and FR-based fire-prone classes in Bhutan.