# Introduction to Probability

A fair coin is flipped five times and comes up heads each time. What is the probability that it will come up heads on the sixth flip? The correct answer is, of course, 1/2. But many people believe that a tail is more likely to occur after throwing five heads. Their faulty reasoning may go something like this: "In the long run, the number of heads and tails will be the same, so the tails have some catching up to do". The flaws in this logic are exposed in the simulation in this chapter.