Forecasting Approaches

Read this article. Two forecasting approaches are employed for forest fire disaster response planning. Focus on the qualitative flow chart in Figure 2.

Methodology

Forest Fire Modeling Flow Chart

The FR and AHP-based modeling were performed separately using forest fire inventory points recorded from 2013 to 2015 (as shown in Figure 1) maintained at the Forest Fire Management Section of the Department of Forests and Park Services. Two forest fire-prone maps were produced, and each map was assessed using the Area Under Curve (AUC) assessment technique. MODIS fire points were overlaid on the fire-prone maps. The step-by-step modeling flowchart is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. A flowchart of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Frequency Ratio (FR)-based modeling of forest fire-prone areas in Bhutan using a Geographic Information System.