Application

Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis is conducted to see the results when some parameters are changed. In this study, scenario analysis has been made by changing the weights of main criteria and subcriteria in seven different scenarios.

In current application, the criteria weights are handled by fuzzy AHP. In each scenario, current weight of a chosen main criterion is increased and the remaining criteria are fixed to their current values. Then new weights are normalized. For example, in scenario 1, the current weight of "Cost" main criterion is increased 25 times and the changed weights of the criteria are normalized, as shown in Table 12. The result of the weighted fuzzy AD brought "Beylikdüzü" to the first order (Table 13). Also the definitions of other scenarios and the obtained results are shown in Tables 12 and 13, respectively.

Table 12 The weights of each criterion for each scenario.

Scenario Definition  W 1 W 2
 W 3
 W 4
 W 5
 W 6
 Total
1 W 1  is increased 25 times
 0.606 0.139 0.02 0.029 0.053 0.153 1.000
2 W 3  is increased 10 times
 0.05 0.229 0.337 0.047 0.086 0.251 1.000
3 W 4 is increased 5 times
 0.056 0.258 0.038 0.267 0.098 0.284 1.000
4 W 5  is increased 40 times
 0.012 0.056 0.008 0.012 0.85 0.062 1.000
5 W 2  is increased 10 times
 0.029 0.134 0.02 0.028 0.051 0.738 1.000
6 W 3  is increased 20 times
 0.037 0.171 0.504 0.035 0.065 0.188 1.000
7 W 6  is increased 5 times
 0.029 0.134 0.02 0.028 0.051 0.738 1.000


Table 13 The results of scenarios for both sides of Istanbul.


Alternatives European Side Asian Side
   Scenario 1
 Scenario 2  Scenario 3  Scenario 4 Alternatives
 Scenario 5
  Scenario 6
  Scenario 7
Beylikdüzü 5.233* 5.379* 5.593 6.086 Pendik 5.298* 5.385 6.035*
Arnavutköy 5.255 5.393
 5.497 5.400 Sultanbeyli 5.332 5.277 6.138
Silivri 5.425 5.416 5.397* 5.399* Tuzla 5.375 5.275* 6.180

*refers the most appropriate alternatives for the location selection.