Import Substitution Industrialization

Read this article to learn about the theory and application of ISI policies implemented in Latin American countries during the 20th century. See if you can recognize the threads of List's theories that helped inform this trade and economic policy.

History


 Average Tariff Rates

Country

1913

1925

1931

1952

2007

Belgium

6

1

17

n.a.

5.2

France

14

9

38

19

5.2

Germany

12

15

40

16

5.2

Italy

17

16

48

24

5.2

United Kingdom

n.a.

4

17

17

5.2

United States

32

26

35

9

3.5


Average tariff rates for selected countries (1913-2007)

 


Tariff rates in Japan (1870–1960)

 


Average tariff rates in Spain and Italy (1860-1910)

 

Average tariff rates (France, UK, US)

 

Average tariff rates in United States (1821–2016)

 


U.S. trade balance and trade policies (1895–2015)


Average Tariff Rates on Manufactured Products for Selected Developed
Countries in Their Early Stages of Development

(weighted average; m percentages of value)1

 

18202

18752

1913

1925

1931

1950

Austria5

R

15-20

18

16

24

18

Belgium4

6-8

9-10

9

15

14

11

Denmark

25-35

15-20

14

10

n.a.

3

France

R

12-15

20

21

30

18

Germany5

8-12

4-6

13

20

21

26

Italy

n.a.

8-10

18

22

46

25

JapanÉ

R

5

30

n.a.

n.a.

n_a.

Netherlands4

6-8

3-5

4

6

n.a.

h

Russia

R

15-20

84

R

R

R

Spain

R

15-20

41

41

63

n.a.

Sweden

R

3-5

20

16

21

9

Switzerland

8-12

4-6

9

14

19

n.a.

United Kingdom

45-55

0

0

5

n.a.

23

Umted States

35-45

40-50

44

37

48

14


Notes: R= Numerous and important restrictions on manufactured imports existed and therefore average tariff rates are not meaningful.

  • World Bank (1991, p. 97, Box table 5.2) provides a similar table, partly drawing on Bairoch's own studies that form the basis of the above table. However, the World Bank figures, although in most cases very similar to Bairoch's figures, are unweighted averages, which are obviously less preferable to weighted average figures that Bairoch provides.
  • These are very approximate rates, and give range of average rates, not extremes.
  • Austria-Hungary before 1925.
  • In 1820, Belgium was united with the Netherlands.
  • The 1820 figure is for Prussia only.
  • Before 1911, Japan was obliged to keep low tariff rates (up to 5%) through a series of "unequal treaties" with the European countries and the USA. The World Bank table cited in note 1 above gives Japan's unweighted average tariff rate for all goods (and not just manufactured goods) for the years 1925,1930,1950 as 13%, 19%, 4%.

Average tariff rates on manufactured products

Incidence of Protection, 1875 and 1913

 

Average levels of duties on manufactured goods

All products

 

1875

1913

1913

Austria-Hungary

15-20

18-20

18-23

Belgium

9-10

9

6-14

Denmark

15-20

14

9

France

12-15

20-21

18-24

Germany

4-6

13

12-17

Italy

8-10

18-20

17-25

Russia

15-20

84

73

Spain

15-20

34-41

37

Sweden

3-5

20-25

16-28

Switzerland

4-6

8-9

7-11

Netherlands

3-5

4

3

The United Kingdom

0

0

0

The United States

40-50

44*

33b

a After 9 October 1913, 25 per cent.
b After 9 October 1913, 16 per cent.

Average levels of duties (1875 and 1913)


The pattern of trade policy reform, exports and growth in selected European countries

(Annual growth rates based in three-year annual average)

 

Date of policy change

Ten-year period preceeding protectionist move

Periods following

First 10 years

protectionist move

Second 10 years

 

 

Exports

GNP

Exports

GNP

Exports

GNP

Belgium

1887

4.9

1.2

2.3

2.0

2.7

2.8

Denmark

1889

1.4

3.3

4.3

3.8

4.1

3.0

France

1892

2.1

1.2

1.9

1.3

2.7

1.5

Germany

1885

3.0

1.3

2.4

3.1

5.2

2.9

Italy

1887

0.4

0.7

1.7

0.5

4.5

2.7

Sweden

1888

3.4

1.5

2.8

3.5

2.4

3.3

Switzerland

1887

0.4

...

-0.6

...

3.8

...

Continental

Europe

1889

3.0

1.1

2.6

2.3

3.7

2.3

a Average of three years proceeding the period, including the year when the policy change was made.

Trade policy, exports and growth in European countries

ISI is a development theory, but its political implementation and theoretical rationale are rooted in trade theory. It has been argued that all or virtually all nations that have industrialized have followed ISI. Import substitution was heavily practiced during the mid-20th century as a form of developmental theory that advocated increased productivity and economic gains within a country. It was an inward-looking economic theory practiced by developing nations after World War II. Many economists then considered the ISI approach as a remedy to mass poverty by bringing a developing country to a developed status through national industrialization. Mass poverty is defined as "the dominance of agricultural and mineral activities – in the low-income countries, and in their inability, because of their structure, to profit from international trade".

Mercantilist economic theory and practices of the 16th, 17th, and 18th centuries frequently advocated building up domestic manufacturing and import substitution. In the early United States, the Hamiltonian economic program, specifically the third report and the magnum opus of Alexander Hamilton, the Report on Manufactures, advocated for the U.S. to become self-sufficient in manufactured goods. That formed the basis of the American School in economics, which was an influential force in the country during its 19th-century industrialization.

Werner Baer contends that all countries that have industrialized after the United Kingdom have gone through a stage of ISI in which much investment in industry was directed to replace imports. Going further, in his book Kicking Away the Ladder, the South Korean economist Ha-Joon Chang also argues based on economic history that all major developed countries, including the United Kingdom, used interventionist economic policies to promote industrialization and protected national companies until they had reached a level of development in which they were able to compete in the global market. Those countries adopted free market discourses directed at other countries to obtain two objectives: to open their markets to local products and to prevent them from adopting the same development strategies that had led to the industrialization of the developed countries.