A "double dip" recession scenario would represent the closest proxy today of the Great Depression. It should be recalled that in the 1930s there were several episodes of stock market recoveries between 1930 and 1932 ("bear market" rallies) that created some illusion of a faster recovery without eventually triggering a real economy response. In addition to the forces operating in the "stagnation" scenario, the driving forces behind this possible replica of the Great Depression could be the combination of a new wave of financial trouble, perhaps in the euro area following banking and currency crises in Eastern Europe, or as a result of a large and disorderly U.S. dollar devaluation. For example, we could see renewed risk aversion and a jarring end of the recent spring and summer rally in the global equity and debt markets; an inability to implement sufficiently strong fiscal stimulus programs, perhaps due to political factionalism and deadlock in some countries; and a strong revival of protectionism.