Inflation and Unemployment

Read this chapter to examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment. As you will see, while there have been some periods in which a trade-off exists between inflation and unemployment, there are also periods in which such clear-cut negative relationship between these variables falls apart. The chapter offers some explanations for these variable behaviors and the stabilization policies that are used to address undesirable trends in the variables.

2. Explaining Inflation–Unemployment Relationships

Changes in Expectations and a Stagflation Phase

As workers and firms become aware that the general price level is rising, they will incorporate this fact into their expectations of future prices. In reaching new agreements on wages, they are likely to settle on higher nominal wages. Firms with sticky prices will adjust their prices upward as they anticipate higher prices throughout the economy.

As we saw in the chapter introducing the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, increases in nominal wages and in prices that were sticky will shift the short-run aggregate supply curve to the left. Such a shift is illustrated in Panel (a) of Figure 16.7 "A Stagflation Phase", where SRAS1,2,3 shifts to SRAS4. The result is a shift to point 4; the price level rises to 1.075, and real GDP falls to $970 billion. The increase in the price level to 1.075 from 1.045 implies an inflation rate of 2.9% ([1.075 − 1.045] / 1.045 = 2.9%); unemployment rises to 6.0% with the decrease in real GDP. The new combination of inflation and unemployment is given by point 4 in Panel (b).

Figure 16.7 A Stagflation Phase

In a stagflation phase, workers and firms adjust their expectations to a higher price level. As they act on their expectations, the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts leftward in Panel (a). The price level rises to 1.075, and real GDP falls to $970 billion. The inflation rate rises to 2.9% as unemployment rises to 6.0% at point 4 in Panel (b).

The essential feature of a stagflation phase is a change in expectations. Workers and firms that were blindsided by rising prices during a Phillips phase ended up with lower real wages and lower relative price levels than they intended. In a stagflation phase, they catch up. But the catching up shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to the left, producing a reduction in real GDP and an increase in the price level.