Setting Up Hypotheses
The Null Hypothesis
The hypothesis that an apparent effect is due to chance is called the null hypothesis. In the Physicians' Reactions example, the null hypothesis is that in the population of physicians, the mean time expected to be spent with obese patients is equal to the mean time expected to be spent with average-weight patients. This null hypothesis can be written as:
The null hypothesis in a correlational study of the relationship between high school grades and college grades would typically be that the population correlation is 0. This can be written as
where is the population correlation (not to be confused with , the correlation in the sample).
Although the null hypothesis is usually that the value of a parameter is, there are occasions in which the null hypothesis is a value other than . For example, if one were testing whether a subject differed from chance in their ability to determine whether a flipped coin would come up heads or tails, the null hypothesis would be that .
Keep in mind that the null hypothesis is typically the opposite of the researcher's hypothesis. In the Physicians' Reactions study, the researchers hypothesized that physicians would expect to spend less time with obese patients. The null hypothesis that the two types of patients are treated identically is put forward with the hope that it can be discredited and therefore rejected. If the null hypothesis were true, a difference as large or larger than the sample difference of 6.7 minutes would be very unlikely to occur. Therefore, the researchers rejected the null hypothesis of no difference and concluded that in the population, physicians intend to spend less time with obese patients.
If the null hypothesis is rejected, then the alternative to the null hypothesis (called the alternative hypothesis) is accepted. The alternative hypothesis is simply the reverse of the null hypothesis. If the null hypothesis
is rejected, then there are two alternatives:
Naturally, the direction of the sample means determines which alternative is adopted. Some textbooks have incorrectly argued that rejecting the null hypothesis that two population means are equal does not justify a conclusion about which population mean is larger. Kaiser showed how it is justified to draw a conclusion about the direction of the difference.