Introduction to Probability

First, we will discuss experiments where outcomes are equally likely to occur and the frequency approach to assigning probabilities. Then, we will focus on the concept of events and touch on the issue of conditional probability.

  1. There is a debate about how to interpret probability. All three of these can be ways to think of probability.

  2. The forecast would have only been wrong if it had predicted a 100% chance of rain. However, the probability assessments are wrong if, over time, it usually doesn't rain on days where an 80% chance of rain is predicted.

  3. We will deal with very few probabilities that are zero (definitely will not happen) or one (definitely will happen).