BUS602: Marketing Management

Researchers usually adopt one of three scanning strategies: 

• Change directed: where the background is known and continuities and potential changes of any kind from the norm are sought, e.g., searching for any kind of change in an interest topic. 
• Signal directed: where specific, known signals, signatures, or trends are sought but little is known of the background "noise," e.g., searching for issue gaps to use in subsequent strategic planning. 
• Pattern directed: where apparently random signals without context and requiring interpretation are sought through emerging pattern recognition or trend analysis, e.g., searching for outliers and changing distribution of observations. 

Researchers usually follow one of two approaches: 

Evidence-based Horizon Scanning (Deductive approach) 
In an evidenced-based Horizon Scan the researcher is seeking to find material that supports an issue or that seeks to provide answers to key questions usually for a specific project, and which may, or may not be repeated sometime in the future. Evidence-based scanning is usually static, periodic, and issue focused. 

In this form of scanning the issue owner: 

• Identifies strategic issues. 
• Commissions future briefing papers. 
• Asks for research to further inform the future briefing papers. 
• Demands evidence. 
• Requests citing of new evidence. Conducts quality assurance. 
• Publishes a future briefing paper. 

Evidence-based Horizon Scanning must reflect best practice, and be able to withstand peer review as well as credible scrutiny by informed readers. High evidence value from authoritative, relevant, well-presented sources and high stimulus value is a necessity. It should provide users with new ideas and perspectives from cutting-edge material to softer perspectives on change. 

One way of doing this is to discover just where the targeted readership obtains their material. A quick organizational survey will improve the quality and provide a single source for their research. In other words, an enterprise-wide knowledge base of evidence can be created which retains corporate memory and informs every one of the current and past state of play. This side benefit has significant potential to reduce costs of evidence collection and increase organizational knowing. 

Intelligence-Based Horizon Scanning (Inductive approach) 

In an intelligence-based Horizon Scan the researcher is seeking to find material that adds to or identifies new issues as they arise with the aim of tracking change and creating an alerting system for new opportunities and threats. Intelligence-based scanning is dynamic, continuous, and usually targeted at keeping up to speed on external potential change in an organization's direct and indirect key interests. 

In this form of scanning the process above is reversed with the researcher: 

• Citing fresh intelligence. 
• Discovering new patterns and connections. 
• Using research to further inform future briefing papers. 
• Creating future briefing papers. 
• Identifying strategic issues. 
• Conducting quality assurance. 
• Publishing the future briefing paper. 

Intelligence-based Horizon Scanning does not require the same level of rigor in order reflect best practice and is not necessarily designed to withstand peer review and credible scrutiny by informed readers; however, it must still provide high intelligence value from authoritative, relevant, and well-presented sources, and high stimulus value through providing users with new ideas and perspectives on a diverse range of topics. It should range from sourcing hard publications to softer perspectives on change and be aimed at a far wider community than just experts.