Case Study on Environmental Scanning

This case study shows how environmental scanning is applied to Egyptian wheat crop production. Note the use of different techniques to deal with the uncertainty of the various environmental factors in producing and marketing wheat crops.

4. Case Study: The Egyptian Wheat Crop Production

Egypt represents the world's largest wheat importer, and high global prices are feeding into domestic prices. In addition, the products of the Wheat crop are crucial food for most Egyptian people.

This paper builds on our research to support policy/decision makers in the Egyptian ministry of agriculture (MOA) for developing the strategic Plan (2014-2035) of the national crop production. In this case-study, we help policy/decision makers in MOT to generate more justifiable estimates for the major drivers in the national wheat production during the next 13 years. In addition, we may help to reduce the future uncertainty and complexity and to stimulate wheat production experts and futurists in Egypt to anticipate the future threats and opportunities for this crucial domain.

Based on PESTEL, SWOT, Structural Analysis, and ontology-based RT-Delphi, more than 18 domain experts/futurists participate to help policy/decision makers by providing new levels about the major domain drivers and their relations. In the following we illustrate the consensus results: