Driven by Nature: The Future of the Arctic
Because of climate change, the Arctic is transitioning to an ice-free future that will open new trade routes and exploit the polar region's vast natural resources amid the receding ice pack. Russia, Norway, Denmark, Canada, the United States, and international organizations are all vying to access these resources. Read the qualitative analysis in this chapter to explore the complexities of international treaties that govern the Arctic and the prospects of innovative multilateral agreements.
How does the changing landscape create a need for political and environmental balance? What are some new opportunities for businesses, economies, and human development?
Introduction
We live on the threshold of the greatest climatic change in recorded human history. The earth and oceans are warming, and the Arctic region is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the planet. Where the planet has warmed 0.7 °C since 1951, the Arctic region has warmed 1.5 °C. In the coming century, the world is expected to warm 2 °C and the Arctic will heat up 3 to 6 °C. These trends of nature coincide with the age of man, for human activity is the long-term cause for a warming earth and oceans. In the warming Arctic, humankind is forced to innovate and adapt to a breakthrough driven by nature.
The changing natural balance of the Arctic region is adjusting the strategic balance, as the receding ice is creating new access to natural resources and trade routes. For regional powers this is a test as to whether a range of issues can be managed responsibly. These include bilateral and international agreements; the settlement of outstanding maritime boundary disputes; effective and responsible use of new lines of maritime communication; competition and cooperation over natural resources; and the development of adequate naval and security capabilities required to match a new range of economic activities. It also requires prudent protection of the environment and the ecosystems that underpin the way of life of native populations.
In this chapter we will examine these natural and international developments that lead nations to innovate as they articulate visions, guiding principles, policy concepts, and strategic goals. These processes, from vision, concept, strategy, and implementation, are visible on both the international and national levels. We have interviewed key stakeholders with responsibilities for the Far North, and we consider their priorities and whether opportunities are being recognised and seized.
There are great challenges ahead in a region with a thinly spread human population, limited infrastructure, incomplete knowledge, inadequate governance, and significant resource wealth. Competitive and cooperative efforts are converging in a new set of industrial activities, legal frameworks, and safety regimes. The trends of nature will force a natural breakthrough without our permission, but it is in our power to secure greater cooperation, security, and economic efficiency for the century ahead. Will we also innovate and develop the necessary leadership to accomplish breakthroughs in our human arrangements?