BUS604: Innovation and Sustainability

The climate is changing because of global warming trends, with the greatest part of heat content building up in the oceans. Because a changing climate has a multiplier effect on existing national and international security concerns, such as food, water, and energy, it is an area of strategic concern. The global consequences of these trends include increased variability in weather patterns, rising sea levels, floods, droughts, ecological extinctions, population displacement, and uncertainties in crop yields and food supplies. Sea ice has receded in the Arctic in a consistent trend since the middle of the twentieth century with an average 8 per cent decline per decade of summer sea-ice. And because of several reinforcing cycles, the rate of heating in the Arctic Circle has accelerated at more than double the global average.  While many factors play their part and short-term predictions are not possible, the large-scale trends point in one direction: the Arctic will see its first ice-free summer in 2030.

The natural breakthrough of the contracting northern ice mass is creating new access to mineral resources, energy resources, and lucrative new trade routes, elevating the economic and strategic value of the Far North. A geopolitical synergy is occurring in which the three conditions for industrial development are converging in energy, raw materials, and transport.  With the rising importance of the region, we are witnessing a complex mechanism of developing international and national visions, policies, and strategies. The ongoing natural breakthrough is spurring processes on the international and national levels: the outcome of these movements will be more than the sum of its parts.

The Arctic is not the scene of a great national scramble or ‘land rush’ for territory and resources leading to an ice-cold war.  It is a highly regulated area covered by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and other instruments. More than 95 per cent of its natural resources lie within agreed national boundaries, internal waters, territorial waters, contiguous zones, exclusive economic zones, or continental shelf claims. International legal frameworks provide ample mechanisms and precedents for settling outstanding disputes. National and corporate economic interests are stabilizing factors that create incentives for states to settle disputes and cooperate economically.

The littoral Arctic five countries – Russia, Norway, Denmark (and Greeenland), Canada, and the United States – and others have articulated shared visions that established the core principles, the institution, and the concept of the overall legal framework. The two most important international breakthroughs, from which other developments are derived, are the establishment of the Arctic Council in 1996 and the Ilulissat Declaration of 2008.