Driven by Nature: The Future of the Arctic

Because of climate change, the Arctic is transitioning to an ice-free future that will open new trade routes and exploit the polar region's vast natural resources amid the receding ice pack. Russia, Norway, Denmark, Canada, the United States, and international organizations are all vying to access these resources. Read the qualitative analysis in this chapter to explore the complexities of international treaties that govern the Arctic and the prospects of innovative multilateral agreements.

How does the changing landscape create a need for political and environmental balance? What are some new opportunities for businesses, economies, and human development?

Concepts: Resources, Routes And Boundaries

Boundaries and Claims

If we take the view from a helicopter, we can see that almost all boundaries are agreed. Only one territorial and one maritime boundary dispute are outstanding, while rapid change and economic interests brought about breakthroughs such as the 2010 settlement of the maritime boundary of the Barents Sea.



between Norway and Russia. As the culmination of a process that started in the 1970s, this treaty is a major accomplishment.

Almost all maritime boundaries are settled. West past the Spitsbergen archipelago, the areas between Norway and Denmark's Greenland have been resolved in a series of agreements.  Between Alaska and the Northern Territories, the only outstanding maritime boundary dispute in the Beaufort Sea is north of Alaska and the Yukon Territories. Between the west of Greenland and the Canadian Ellesmere Island, the maritime boundary in the Davis Strait was settled in 1973,  except for the uninhabited rock of Hans Island, which remains the only outstanding territorial dispute in the Far North. As we shall see, this rock played an important part in the Canadian elections of 2006.

North of the territorial waters exclusive economic zones extend up to 200 nautical miles, and beyond there are claims on the continental shelves for an additional 150 nm. In accordance with the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, a Commission for the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) was established in Paris, where these claims are under review. The deadline for a coastal state to submit a claim is ten years after its ratification of UNCLOS.  Russia, Norway, and Canada have submitted claims to the CLCS.

In the summer of 2012 Denmark leased the strongest Swedish icebreaker, Oden, and took 46 scientists on board to gather seismic data to back up the Danish claim,  which will be submitted before their deadline of 16 November 2014. Canada, Russia, and Denmark are making overlapping claims to the Lomonosov Ridge and the geographical North Pole, and each is presenting arguments to the CLCS based on scientific and geological, rather than political or legal argument. The Lomonosov Ridge spans 1,800 km from the New Siberian Islands to Canada's Ellesmere Island and, at four times the length of Arizona's Grand Canyon, is the largest canyon on the Earth's crust.

The Danes will claim that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of Greenland, the Canadians claim that it is an extension of the North American landmass, and the Russians argue that it is an extension of the Siberian landmass. Because the CLCS assesses claims on their scientific merit, and does not adjudicate territorial disputes, it is entirely possible that the commission will conclude that the rules apply to all claims and tell the three claimants to sort it out among themselves.  If they have a desire to settle, they can turn to the International Tribunal for the Law on the Sea, the International Court of Justice, or arrange ad hoc arbitration. In this scenario, it is also possible that one or more parties might not be able to resist political grandstanding.

Because the US has not yet ratified UNCLOS – and the Danes are the last of the other four to submit their claim to Paris – the Danish deadline of 16 November 2014 applies to the US as well. If the US Senate fails to ratify UNCLOS, and the State Department fails to submit a claim before that date, the US will lose an important window of opportunity.