BUS604: Innovation and Sustainability

Given the military importance that Russia attaches to the region, it has also become important to Norway. Despite respect for international law and diplomacy, the Russians are unlikely to give up the use of military strength as an instrument of diplomacy. For this reason, and because NATO is not as focused on the Arctic as it was during the Cold War, Norway is seeking to develop sufficient capabilities to be able to manage any crisis independently.  But as is the case in most Western liberal democratic states, it remains a challenge to forge an integrated grand strategy shared by the foreign policy and defense establishments.

Norway's relationship with Russia is now inevitably ambiguous. Unlike the Cold War era, when NATO and the Soviet Union agreed that they were enemies, it is harder to argue for deterrence and collective defense against a Russia that is also the most important business partner in the energy sector. This tension between the economic sphere and security policy requires a delicate balancing act.  

On the security side, Norway wishes to invite military exercises by NATO (or by NATO members without the NATO label) to the Arctic to internationalize its security posture. On the economic side, after the maritime boundary settlement, the subsequent set of multi-billion dollar oil agreements represents an important boost for Russia. This might lead to a paradoxical situation: will it be necessary within a decade for Norway to ask NATO for help to protect itself against a renewed Russian military that was largely financed by Western energy consumption?

The Norwegian Government's High North Strategy was published in 2006 and expanded in 2009. It is a policy statement without a strategy, and it reflects neither a political nor an administrative consensus, but the views and policy aims of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. With an emphasis on three overarching principles – knowledge, presence and activity – the document outlines familiar themes of sovereignty, scientific research, strengthening cooperation, the protection of the livelihoods of indigenous peoples, and stewardship in environmental protection and economic activities.  With an emphasis on knowledge, education and diplomacy, the only long-term themes discussed in the policy statement concern economic interests, where security is an afterthought. 

The document mentions the Norwegian armed forces only in the context of a discussion on presence and a function of exercising sovereign authority.  The armed forces are there to support the coastguard, to provide up-to-date surveillance and intelligence, and above all, to be present. The document does not elaborate on the practicalities of safety, search-and-rescue or security. It does not address the relationship between the spheres of foreign policy, economics and security.

The Norwegian Ministry of Defense does not have a comparable single public policy document explicitly spelling out its strategy for the Far North, but there are some indications of a long-term strategic outlook. The region is a prioritized area for defense policy, and "Norway's prime area for strategic investment".  While it is beyond Norway's scope to develop a war-fighting capability against Russia, today's military thinking is focused on developing a capability of situational awareness and independent crisis management, a capability that would allow a margin of political freedom of action for Norwegian decision-makers without having to call on divided NATO allies.  

These defense priorities are reflected in a document Future Acquisitions for the Norwegian Armed Forces 2012-2020, published in July 2012. In all areas, there is an emphasis on modernizing communications and monitoring capabilities to maximize situational awareness; and in both land and naval systems, crisis management includes search-and-rescue and offensive capabilities. The overwhelming portion of the air force budget is devoted to the purchase of 55 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, while naval systems receive the greatest attention for modernisation and expansion".

Being both a NATO member and an economic partner to Russia, the Norwegian armed forces are in a unique position to bridge the two. Admiral BruunHanssen, Chief of Staff of the Norwegian armed forces since 2013, noted that he frequently briefs NATO on Russian military activities, and is even consulted by Russians for advice on certain situations. The informal club of Arctic Chiefs of Staff contributes to the military dialogue with the Russians, where all parties are very aware of their zones of responsibility for search-and-rescue.  In the thin atmosphere of limited resources, capabilities, and infrastructure for monitoring, communications, and responsive action, necessity is driving unprecedented cooperation. The Pomor series of joint Norwegian-Russian military exercises also reflects greater military-to-military cooperation.

What is still needed, however, is a long-term, integrated, and allied grand strategy. Published documents and our interviews reveal that the Norwegian armed forces are very aware that they need to develop an integrated toolkit for a broad spectrum of action, "because we become a sort of Swiss army knife. A multiple tool for a lot of purposes".  The allied approach is pursued through inclusiveness and cooperation as the best way to achieve one's interests: "To join, to find strength through cooperation. Because you are not big enough to achieve all your goals on your own".

Among Scandinavian countries, Norway has the greatest tradition of self-reliance, and this is inherent in its culture and strategic outlook. Its vision and concept for the Arctic includes the elements of environmental protection, international cooperation, and development of energy resources. There are many parallel developments in Norway with regard to the Far North: scientific research, economic development in the private sector, the policies of the foreign ministry, and the strategy of the armed forces. Norway would benefit from political leadership that could steer greater cooperation between diplomats, the military, and industry.