Driven by Nature: The Future of the Arctic

Because of climate change, the Arctic is transitioning to an ice-free future that will open new trade routes and exploit the polar region's vast natural resources amid the receding ice pack. Russia, Norway, Denmark, Canada, the United States, and international organizations are all vying to access these resources. Read the qualitative analysis in this chapter to explore the complexities of international treaties that govern the Arctic and the prospects of innovative multilateral agreements.

How does the changing landscape create a need for political and environmental balance? What are some new opportunities for businesses, economies, and human development?

Policies And Strategies

Canada

"The North is part of our identity as a nation and people feel very passionately about it, but very few Canadians have visited the North, because it is so expansive and so remote. So it is an imagined connection, but there isn't necessarily a lot of in-depth knowledge among the Canadian population at large about the specifics of Canada's North. It is a little bit of a paradox".

Canada is the most passionate player in the Arctic and the one country where international policy and strategy are most derived from domestic priorities. These priorities are now focused on the economic and human development of the indigenous peoples of the North. Canada was shocked into action by a 2005 United Nations report on the development of its indigenous peoples, which noted:

Economic, social, and human indicators of well-being, quality of life, and development are consistently lower among Aboriginal people than other Canadians. Poverty, infant mortality, unemployment, morbidity, suicide, criminal detention, children on welfare, women victims of abuse, child prostitution, are all much higher among Aboriginal people than in any other sector of Canadian society, whereas educational attainment, health standards, housing conditions, family income, access to economic opportunity and to social services are generally lower.  

The report added: "Canada has taken up the challenge to close this gap".

Canada's new determination to focus on the human and economic development of the peoples of the North is manifested in its domestic political priorities, as well as the chairmanship of the Arctic Council, in which it has placed human development at the top of the agenda. The process of Canadian deliberation serves to maximize the inclusiveness of all stakeholders. Because the Far North is a very emotive subject for the Canadian people, seasonal political grandstanding for electoral purposes is to be expected. More important, however, is the vision and concept described in Canada's new Northern strategy, which many Canadians we spoke to consider to be an integrated strategy.

Canada is a federation with ten provinces and three Northern Territories: Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut. Out of a population of 33.5 million, a mere 100,000 live in the Northern Territories, the majority of whom are indigenous. Because Canada is not a unitary state, there are always many players involved in each issue, where the federal government departments negotiate with provincial governments, territorial governments, municipalities, native peoples, and other stakeholders. With the overall aim to make the North economically self-sufficient, any initiative requires a policy of outreach. This consultative approach is inherent in the country's structure and culture. The Canadian government has made a point of including Northerners as much as possible in the development of the new Northern strategy, and also named the Inuit Minister of the Environment, Leona Aglukkaq, as the representative to the Arctic Council during Canada's chairmanship from 2013 to 2015. 

The vision and policy concepts were translated into Canada's Northern Strategy, published in 2009, which aims to be an overarching policy framework, to be used as a guideline and umbrella for all government departments, although each department remains accountable to its minister. The colorful trilingual document, written in English, French, and Inuit, heralds the four pillars of Canada's Arctic strategy: sovereignty, governance, economic and social development, and environmental protection. Each of these pillars carries equal weight, and international policy derives almost as an afterthought from these domestic priorities. We spoke with members of the Department of Foreign Affairs, the Department of Aboriginal Affairs, and the Department of National Defense. How does the strategy translate into their policy processes?

In the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Jeanette Menzies heads the Canadian International Center for the Arctic Region. Her portfolio includes formulating Canada's Arctic foreign policy; bringing coherence to the work by missions and embassies; working on the Arctic Council chairmanship; conducting outreach to foreign embassies in Ottawa; managing a leading role in scientific research; and encouraging business and investment in Canada's North.

The Department for Aboriginal Affairs covers policy towards the three Northern territorial governments of Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut. This geographical area of more than 3.9 million sq km is 40 percent of Canada's landmass and faces three oceans. In Nunavut the indigenous population is 85 percent, in the Northwest Territories about 50 percent and in the Yukon 20 percent. The overarching policy aim is "development of the North for Northerners" politically, economically, and socially, but overcoming the challenges of remoteness and isolation is hard.

There are more than 50 isolated communities in the Northern Territories with around 1,000-2,000 people in each, living in conditions of six months light, six months darkness, and -40°C winters. Over 50 percent of the Northern population is under 25, and they have great potential to connect via new media, both in social media and broadcasting. While economic development is slow, this new connectivity is an important enabling factor. Each of these communities has its infrastructure requirements in housing, schools, hospitals, energy, ports, and airfields. The Inuit there have independence in issuing contracts and choosing whom to do business with. And with the consultative approach, the DAA organizes large advisory boards with all stakeholders involved in order to coordinate this development at all layers of government, federal, territorial, and municipal. It should come as no surprise that the primary theme of Canada's chairmanship of the Arctic Council from 2013-2015 is the 'Development of the Peoples of the North'.  

And what about the level of defense? The military and defense mandate derives solely from the government strategy outlined above, and helping to deliver that mandate. Necessity is driving this integrated approach.  In 2007, Prime Minister Stephen Harper declared, "'Canada has a choice when it comes to defending our sovereignty in the Arctic. We either use it or lose it. And make no mistake, this government intends to use it".  But despite this bellicose language, the military and security presence of Canada's north remains modest, with no more force additions than reinstating a presence that was removed after the Cold War.  With a fleet of 15 icebreakers, the Canadian Coast Guard has greater capability of operating in ice than the Royal Canadian Navy, and is called upon to escort an average of four vessels through the ice per day.

On the question of transport and traffic, it is notable how little the Canadian Northwest Passage is discussed as an international strait in any of the policy documents or by the policy practitioners we spoke to. This is in contrast to the emphasis the Russians are placing on the development of the Northern Sea Route. The political class, however, caused a stir in 2009 when a motion was passed in the Canadian House of Commons to rename the Northwest Passage, the Canadian Northwest Passage.  This was an effort to 'nationalize' a passage considered an international strait by the US and the EU,  but both the move and the reactions to it were largely beside the point. While the sea ice is melting north of Russia, it will not disappear from the Canadian archipelago for a long time to come. While human activity is expected to increase in the North, Canadian civil servants noted to us, "In our analyses the Northwest

Passage is probably not going to be open for the next 20 years".

This explains why transport is barely discussed. The question of natural mineral and energy resources is also mentioned very little. While there is recognition that there is going to be an increase in resource-based human activity, the Northern strategy does mention the preparatory scientific research needed for resource exploitation. The government will stimulate this research, but the private sector is expected to take over from there and stimulate employment:

The Government of Canada announced a significant new geo-mapping effort – Geo-Mapping for energy and minerals – that will combine the latest technology and geoscientific analysis methods to build our understanding of the geology of Canada's North, including in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The results of this work will highlight areas of mineral and petroleum potential, lead to more effective private sector exploration investment and create employment opportunities in the North.

In Norway and Russia, energy, fish, and mineral resources, and their surrounding logistics and instruments of international cooperation, are all considered central to their Northern strategies. For Canada, international cooperation is peripheral to the domestic considerations of social development. While Canada is developing the Alberta tar sands, it matters little if the buyer is the US or China. Neither of those countries seems interested in resolving the maritime delimitation of the Beaufort Sea, quite possibly because there are no joint exploration agreements in the pipeline for oil and gas. The biggest increase in traffic will be driven by domestic resource development.

As a corollary to the emphasis on domestic priorities, international interest in Canada's Arctic policy also focuses on domestic developments. Sometimes the view from Denmark can be strange, when domestic politics, rather than policy, takes center stage.

In 2005 Harper's Conservatives put the Arctic at the center of the election campaign, attacking the Liberals for weakness in their emphasis on diplomacy. They argued that if there is insufficient investment in military hardware, Canadian inherent rights to the Arctic will be challenged by other players.  In response, the Liberal defense minister Bill Graham flew to Hans Island, the disputed barren rock between Greenland and Ellesmere Island, and hauled down a Danish flag that had been planted there in 1984 and replaced in 2003.  Graham took the flag and delivered it to the Danish Ambassador in Ottawa, stating that a Danish flag had been found on a Canadian island, and would he take it back to Copenhagen and inform the Ministry that Canada would not accept this? The result was a period of diplomatic turmoil.  But the stunt was to no avail. The Conservatives won.

Given the emotive importance that the Arctic holds for the general population of Canada, this kind of grandstanding can be expected every five years. Other Arctic states should not worry too much about the double communication between posturing for a domestic audience and the outreach that Canada makes to international partners. The politics is part of the game, but the policy is quite serious.

All in all, Canada has a fairly comprehensive and integrated domestic Arctic strategy. It is natural considering the geographical, social, and governance structure of the country. It is admirable that Canada has prioritized the geographically challenging task of the development of its indigenous peoples. With its national and international attention focused on this question, it may well be possible to create a meaningful breakthrough to dramatically improve the lives of the peoples of the north. But Canada would benefit if it were also to develop an integrated international strategy with planning that looks further ahead than the next election cycle.