Driven by Nature: The Future of the Arctic

Because of climate change, the Arctic is transitioning to an ice-free future that will open new trade routes and exploit the polar region's vast natural resources amid the receding ice pack. Russia, Norway, Denmark, Canada, the United States, and international organizations are all vying to access these resources. Read the qualitative analysis in this chapter to explore the complexities of international treaties that govern the Arctic and the prospects of innovative multilateral agreements.

How does the changing landscape create a need for political and environmental balance? What are some new opportunities for businesses, economies, and human development?

Conclusion

Leadership

For the Arctic Council to become a genuine intergovernmental organization, rather than merely a high-level talking shop, a new kind of Arctic Treaty would be needed. It would transform the organization into one with a structure modeled on a regional group like the European Union, with an executive authority, a military staff committee, and other departments covering a broad spectrum of activity. But such a daring international move is beyond what is achievable today, and could upset the existing equilibrium. For a meaningful and genuine international breakthrough, innovative and courageous leadership would be needed – a leadership that can inspire a large-scale vision for a large number of people. It requires leadership to articulate a vision for the future that can inspire change. It takes leadership to see beyond what is being done to what might be possible.

The breakthrough driven by nature is forcing human innovations and breakthroughs. These national movements, with breakthroughs at national or subnational levels, are collectively driving breakthroughs at the macro level, to an outcome that will be more than the sum of its parts. The natural breakthrough is creating a new regional and strategic balance, and with varying levels of urgency a flurry of smaller innovations and breakthrough processes, ranging from ministries to national governments to international organizations. On the whole, these developments are very promising.

But what we have not yet seen is an inspirational leader like President John F. Kennedy, who articulated a large-scale vision, inspiring and challenging his nation to innovate in order to accomplish a seemingly impossible task within a decade.

But why, some say, the moon? Why choose this as our goal? And they may well ask why climb the highest mountain? (…) We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win.

After Kennedy's speech, industries were mobilized, and innovations sprang up in textiles, metals, plastics, aviation, and many other areas. An entire generation was inspired to take up science, with global benefits that have reached into every industry and field of science, and endure to this day. The discoveries of science can lead to policy outcomes, but genuine leadership inspiring innovation can be more enduring. If a great leader emerged and challenged his nation to innovate on a large scale, the impact could last deep into the century. Will a leader emerge in the coming decade to inspire us to innovate in the same way in the Arctic?