HIST363: Global Perspectives on Industrialization

The Industrial Revolution, which prompted the shift in population from rural to urban, also encouraged market economies, which have evolved into modern consumer societies. Various theories and models have been developed over the years to help explain these changes. For example, in 1929, the American demographer Warren Thompson developed the demographic transition model (DTM) to explain population growth based on an interpretation of demographic history. A revised version of Thomson's model outlines five stages of demographic transition, from traditional rural societies to modern urban societies:

• Stage 1: High birth and death rates; rural preindustrial society
• Stage 2: Declining death rate; developing country
• Stage 3: Declining birth rate; high urbanization rate
• Stage 4: Low birth and death rates; stabilized population
• Stage 5: Declining population; urban postindustrial society

In the 1960s, economist Walt Rostow outlined a pattern of economic development that has become one model for growth in a global economy. Rostow's model outlined the five stages of growth in the economic modernization of a country:

• Stage 1: Traditional society
• Stage 2: Preconditions for take-off
• Stage 3: Take-off
• Stage 4: Drive to maturity
• Stage 5: Age of high mass consumption

The human development index (HDI) was developed in 1990 and used by the United Nations Development Program to measure a standard of human development, which refers to the widening opportunities available to individuals for education, health care, income, and employment. The HDI incorporates variables such as standards of living, literacy rate, and life expectancy to indicate a measure of well-being or the quality of life for a specific country. The HDI is used as an indicator of a country's economic and technological development.

The basic principles of Rostow's DTM and the HDI can be illustrated in a general index for understanding development. Two variables of the DTM's correlating five stages are family size and economic income, which can illustrate the population pattern or development potential. All countries of the world are at one of the five stages. The general index addresses how population growth rates relate to rural-to-urban shift, which has traditionally been a result of industrialization. By tracking both family size and economic conditions, a pattern of population growth and economic development can be illustrated and more clearly understood.

Fertility rate is often defined as the number of children born to a woman in her lifetime, regardless of whether they all live to adulthood. Fertility rate may (or may not) vary from family size, which is an indication of the number of living children raised by a parent or parents in the same household. A high infant mortality rate may account for a fertility rate that is greater than family size. To simplify the understanding, family size is used in this textbook to illustrate economic dynamics. Though the statistical data may vary slightly between the two terms, this should not present any problem in understanding basic patterns of development.

As a general trend, when a country experiences increasing levels of industrial activity and greater urban growth, the outcome is usually a higher standard of living for its people. Additionally, rural-to-urban shift takes place, driven by the pull of opportunities and advantages in the industrializing and urbanizing areas. Though there are exceptions, a decrease in family size usually coincides with a higher level of urbanization. There are cases in which only core regions within a country transition through the five development stages without the peripheral regions experiencing the coinciding levels of economic benefit. The five stages of the index of economic development assist in illustrating these general patterns.

Stage 1 indicates traditional rural societies, which are usually based on agriculture and not as dependent on the outside world. Stage 1 families are larger, their income levels are low, and their advantages and economic development opportunities are low. Health care, education, and social services are in short supply or nonexistent. High birth and death rates maintain a high fertility rate/family size and a low population-growth status. Populations in stage 1 development have a stationary population pyramid. Though there may be regions of the world that exhibit stage 1 development patterns, few if any entire countries fall into this category as of the year 2000.

Stage 2 countries experience high population growth rates because family size remains high but modern medicine or improved nutrition allows people to live longer, which lowers the death rate. Population is exploding in countries in stage 2. During this stage, young people from rural areas often migrate to the cities looking for employment. Rural stage 2 regions are starting to urbanize and integrate their economic activities with the outside world. Regions in stage 2 often have a surplus of cheap labor. Income levels remain low and family size continues to be large. Countries in this stage often have a rapidly expanding population pyramid.

Societies that have made business connections that provide for manufacturing of products, industrial activities, or an increased service sector might progress to stage 3, the rural-to-urban shift stage. These regions are experiencing a high rate of rural-to-urban shift in their populations. These regions are often targeted by multinational corporations for their labor supply, and as people migrate from rural areas to the cities looking for employment, urban populations grow and core or central cities experience high rates of self-constructed housing (slums). Income levels start to increase and family size starts to drop significantly. Stage 3 countries have an expanding population pyramid.

Societies that have urbanized and industrialized and are members of the global marketplace might enter stage 4. Members of an urban workforce assist in building a networked economy. Family size is lower as urban women enter the workforce and have fewer children. Health care, education, and social services become increasingly available, and income levels continue to rise. In stage 4, there is typically a high level of growth in the industrial and service sectors with a great need for infrastructure in the form of transportation, housing, and human services. Countries in stage 4 development have populations that resemble a stationary population pyramid.

As incomes increase and family size decreases, a consumer society emerges, creating stage 5, where high mass consumption can drive the economy. Many countries in stage 5 can eventually experience a negative population growth rate in which the fertility rate (family size) is below replacement levels (statistically around 2.1 children). With a low number of young people entering the workforce, stage 5 regions become an attractive magnet for people looking for opportunities and advantages in the job market. Illegal immigration might become an issue. Europe and the United States are now experiencing this condition. Japan has the same low family size, but because of their island location and strict laws, they have a different set of illegal immigration issues compared with Europe or the United States. Populations in stage 5 development have a contracting population pyramid.

The four basic shapes of population pyramids can parallel the various stages of a country's economic development. Many of the concepts used in this textbook are interrelated. The various methods, models, or theories used in geography are often used by other disciplines as well. Understanding one concept usually assists the reader in learning about the other concepts and how they apply to different geographic locations. In this case, the stages of economic development and the population pyramids illustrate the contrast between rural and urban societies and the changes in family size during the industrialization process.