Trade Balances in Historical and International Context

We present the history of the U.S. current account balance in recent decades in several different ways. Figure 10.2 (a) shows the current account balance and the merchandise trade balance – the latter of which is simply the balance on goods exported versus imported – in dollar terms. Figure 10.2 (b) shows the current account balance and merchandise account balance yet again, this time as a share of the GDP for that year. By dividing the trade deficit in each year by GDP in that year, Figure 10.2 (b) factors out both inflation and growth in the real economy.

Figure 10.2 Current Account Balance and Merchandise Trade Balance, 1960–2020 (a) The current account balance and the merchandise trade balance in billions of dollars from 1960 to 2020. The merchandise trade balance is the trade balance on goods only. If the lines are above zero dollars, the United States was running a positive trade balance and current account balance. If the lines fall below zero dollars, the United States is running a trade deficit and a deficit in its current account balance. (b) This shows the same items – trade balance and current account balance – in relationship to the size of the U.S. economy, or GDP, from 1960 to 2020.

By either measure, the U.S. balance of trade pattern is clear. From the 1960s into the 1970s, the U.S. economy had mostly small trade surpluses – that is, the graphs in Figure 10.2 show positive numbers. However, starting in the 1980s, the trade deficit increased rapidly, and after a tiny surplus in 1991, the current account trade deficit became even larger in the late 1990s and into the mid-2000s. However, the trade deficit declined in 2009 after the recession had taken hold, then rebounded partially in 2010 and remained stable up through 2019 before falling again in 2020.

Current Account Balance in Billions of Dollars.

Table 10.4 shows the U.S. trade picture in 2013 compared with some other economies from around the world. While the U.S. economy has consistently run trade deficits in recent years, Japan and many European nations, among them France and Germany, have consistently run trade surpluses. Some of the other countries listed include Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America; Nigeria, along with South Africa, competing to be the largest economy in Africa; and China, India, and Korea. The first column offers one measure of an economy's globalization: exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP. The second column shows the trade balance. Usually, most countries have trade surpluses or deficits that are less than 5% of GDP. As you can see, the U.S. current account balance is –2.6% of GDP, while Germany's is 8.4% of GDP.

Table 10.4 Level and Balance of Trade (Balance of Payments basis) in 2020 (figures as a percentage of GDP

Source: Rice University, https://openstax.org/books/principles-macroeconomics-3e/pages/10-2-trade-balances-in-historical-and-international-context
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