Measuring Forecast Accuracy in a Pharmacy

Read this article where forecasting approaches, along with a hybrid forecasting method are covered. What types of data can a company use in quantitative forecasts?

Materials and Methods

This study adopted a survey and ex post facto descriptive designs which involved the conduct of pilot study, interview and the collection of secondary data of the sales record of the selected retail pharmacy outlet that sell both wholesale and retail products to customers. A combination of quantitative forecasting techniques of; (i) a moving average method; (ii) a simple exponential smoothing method and (iii) least square method were applied to generate demand forecasts for 12 months from January, 2018 to December, 2018 from Twelve (12) historical monthly sales figures from January, 2017 to December, 2017. The demand forecasts were subjected to accuracy test to identify errors made. The forecasting errors challenge the overall accuracy of the forecasting methods no matter how simple or sophisticated.