Exercise

Evaluate the following arguments from analogy as either strong or weak. If the argument is weak, cite what you think would be a relevant disanalogy.

  1. Every painting by Rembrandt contains dark colors and illuminated faces, therefore the original painting that hangs in my high school is probably by Rembrandt, since it contains dark colors and illuminated faces.
  2. I was once bitten by a poodle. Therefore, this poodle will probably bite me too.
  3. Every poodle I've ever met has bitten me (and I've met over 300 poodles). Therefore, this poodle will probably bite me too.
  4. My friend took Dr. Van Cleave's logic class last semester and got an A. Since Dr. Van Cleave's class is essentially the same this semester and since my friend is no better a student than I am, I will probably get an A as well.
  5. Bill Cosby used his power and position to seduce and rape women. Therefore, Bill Cosby probably also used his power to rob banks.
  6. Every car I've ever owned had seats, wheels and brakes and was also safe to drive. This used car that I am contemplating buying has seats, wheels and brakes. Therefore, this used car is probably safe to drive.
  7.  Every Volvo I've ever owned was a safe car to drive. My new car is a Volvo. Therefore, my new car is probably safe to drive.
  8. Dr. Van Cleave did not give Jones an excused absence when Jones missed class for his grandmother's funeral. Mary will have to miss class to attend her aunt's funeral. Therefore, Dr. Van Cleave should not give Mary an excused absence either.
  9. Dr. Van Cleave did not give Jones an excused absence when Jones missed class for his brother's birthday party. Mary will have to miss class to attend her aunt's funeral. Therefore, Dr. Van Cleave should not give Mary an excused absence either. Chapter 3: Evaluating inductive arguments and probabilistic and statistical fallacies 159
  10. If health insurance companies pay for heart surgery and brain surgery, which can both increase an individual's happiness, then they should also pay for cosmetic surgery, which can also increase an individual's happiness.
  11. A knife is an eating utensil that can cut things. A spoon is also an eating utensil. So a spoon can probably cut things as well.
  12. Any artificial, complex object like a watch or a telescope has been designed by some intelligent human designer. But naturally occurring objects like eyes and brains are also very complex objects. Therefore, complex naturally occurring objects must have been designed by some intelligent non-human designer.
  13. The world record holding runner, Kenenisa Bekele ran 100 miles per week and twice a week did workouts comprised of ten mile repeats on the track in the weeks leading up to his 10,000 meter world record. I have run 100 miles per week and have been doing ten mile repeats twice a week. Therefore, the next race I will run will probably be a world record.
  14. I feel pain when someone hits me in the face with a hockey puck. We are both human beings, so you also probably feel pain when you are hit in the face with a hockey puck.
  15. The color I experience when I see something as "green" has a particular quality (that is difficult to describe). You and I are both human beings, so the color you experience when you see something green probably has the exact same quality. (That is, what you and I experience when we see something green is the exact same experiential color).